Olson's Gap or Olson's Extinction? A Bayesian tip-dating approach to resolving stratigraphic uncertainty.

Adaptive radiations and mass extinctions are of critical importance in structuring terrestrial ecosystems. However, the causes and progress of these transitions often remain controversial, in part because of debates surrounding the completeness of the fossil record and biostratigraphy of the relevant fossil-bearing formations. The early-middle Permian, when a substantial faunal turnover in tetrapods coincided with a restructuring of the trophic structure of ecosystems, is such a time. Some have suggested the transition is obscured by a gap in the tetrapod fossil record (Olson's Gap), while others suggest a correlation between North American and Russian tetrapod-bearing formations allows the interval to be documented in detail. The latter biostratigraphic scheme has been used to support a mass extinction at this time (Olson's Extinction). Bayesian tip-dating methods used frequently in phylogenetics are employed to resolve this debate. Bayes factors are used to compare the results of analyses incorporating tip age priors based on different stratigraphic hypotheses, to show which stratigraphic scheme best fits the morphological data and phylogeny. Olson's Gap is rejected, and the veracity of Olson's Extinction is given further support. Tip-dating approaches have great potential to resolve debates surrounding the stratigraphic ages of critical formations where appropriate morphological data is available.