ArticleAmerican journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons2020
Identifying scenarios of benefit or harm from kidney transplantation during the COVID-19 pandemic: A stochastic simulation and machine learning study.
Article in American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Mortality risk factors of COVID-19 infection in kidney transplantation recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohorts and clinical registries.Scientific reports · 2021Pooled it
- Immunosuppression Efficacy via Nonlinear Modeling and Probabilistic Analysis of Human Leukocyte Antigen Match and Dose Effects on Allograft Rejection Risk.Immunity, inflammation and disease · 2025Article
- An In-depth overview of artificial intelligence (AI) tool utilization across diverse phases of organ transplantation.Journal of translational medicine · 2025Review
- Changes in the epidemiology of kidney replacement therapy across Europe in 2020-the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: an ERA Registry study.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2024Article
- Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Pulmonary Aspergillosis: A Noninvasive Screening Model for Additional Diagnostics.Open forum infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Kidney transplantation during mass disasters - from COVID-19 to other catastrophes A Consensus Statement by the DESCARTES Working Group and Ethics Committee of the ERA.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2023Article
- Delayed Graft Function in Kidney Transplant: Risk Factors, Consequences and Prevention Strategies.Journal of personalized medicine · 2022Review
- Risk of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission Through Solid Organ Transplantation and Outcomes of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Among Recent Transplant Recipients.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Ethical Issues in Kidney Transplant and Donation During COVID-19 Pandemic.Seminars in nephrology · 2022Review
- The Global Impact of COVID-19 on Solid Organ Transplantation: Two Years Into a Pandemic.Transplantation · 2022Review
- Impact of COVID-19 on living donor liver and kidney transplantation programs in Japan in 2020.Transplant infectious disease : an official journal of the Transplantation Society · 2022Article
- Pausing transplants in the face of a global pandemic: Patient survival implications.Production and operations management · 2022Article
- Review on COVID-19 diagnosis models based on machine learning and deep learning approaches.Expert systems · 2022Article
- Strategies to Mitigate the Impact of COVID 19 Pandemic on Organ Donation and Kidney Transplantation in Latin America.Current urology reports · 2021Review
- Comparative incidence and outcomes of COVID-19 in kidney or kidney-pancreas transplant recipients versus kidney or kidney-pancreas waitlisted patients: A single-center study.Clinical transplantation · 2021Article
- Risks and Benefits of Kidney Transplantation during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transplant or Not Transplant?Kidney360 · 2021Review
- Artificial intelligence and kidney transplantation.World journal of transplantation · 2021Review
- Renal transplantation after recovery from COVID-19 - a case report with implications for transplant programs in the face of the ongoing corona-pandemic.BMC nephrology · 2021Article
- Inpatient COVID-19 outcomes in solid organ transplant recipients compared to non-solid organ transplant patients: A retrospective cohort.American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons · 2021Article
- Practicing With Uncertainty: Kidney Transplantation During the COVID-19 Pandemic.American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation · 2021Review
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11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Clinical decision-making in kidney transplant (KT) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is understandably a conundrum: both candidates and recipients may face increased acquisition risks and case fatality rates (CFRs). Given our poor understanding of these risks, many centers have paused or reduced KT activity, yet data to inform such decisions are lacking. To quantify the benefit/harm of KT in this context, we conducted a simulation study of immediate-KT vs delay-until-after-pandemic for different patient phenotypes under a variety of potential COVID-19 scenarios. A calculator was implemented (http://www.transplantmodels.com/covid_sim), and machine learning approaches were used to evaluate the important aspects of our modeling. Characteristics of the pandemic (acquisition risk, CFR) and length of delay (length of pandemic, waitlist priority when modeling deceased donor KT) had greatest influence on benefit/harm. In most scenarios of COVID-19 dynamics and patient characteristics, immediate KT provided survival benefit; KT only began showing evidence of harm in scenarios where CFRs were substantially higher for KT recipients (eg, ≥50% fatality) than for waitlist registrants. Our simulations suggest that KT could be beneficial in many centers if local resources allow, and our calculator can help identify patients who would benefit most. Furthermore, as the pandemic evolves, our calculator can update these predictions.
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