ArticleEpidemiology and infection2020
Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre. The case of COVID-19.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics.Journal of mathematical analysis and applications · 2022Article
- Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana.Scientific African · 2022Article
- Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2021Article
- Use of the Hayami diffusive wave equation to model the relationship infected-recoveries-deaths of Covid-19 pandemic.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Estimating the effects of reopening of schools on the course of the epidemic of COVID-19.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Quarantine and the risk of COVID-19 importation.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic.Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil)Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Although this paper focuses on the data from China, our methods can be adapted to calculate the risk of importation and subsequent outbreaks. We found an average R0 = 5.31 (ranging from 4.08 to 7.91) and a risk of spreading of 0.75 latent individuals per 1000 travellers. In addition, one infective traveller would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country with a probability of 23%.
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