Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32511583›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2020

The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control.

Marissa L Childs, Morgan P Kain, Devin Kirk, Mallory Harris, Lisa Couper, Nicole Nova, Isabel Delwel, Jacob Ritchie, Erin A Mordecai

Abstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Marissa L ChildsEmmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Morgan P KainDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Devin KirkDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Mallory HarrisDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Lisa CouperDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Nicole NovaDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Isabel DelwelDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Jacob RitchieDepartment of Computer Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Erin A MordecaiDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.

Funding

Leveraging environmental drivers to predict vector-borne disease transmissionR35GM133439 · NIGMS · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Erin Mordecai · 2019 to 2026
$3.2M
NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM133439
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to combat COVID-19 transmission have worked to slow the spread of the epidemic but can have high socio-economic costs. It is critical we understand the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions to choose a safe exit strategy. Many current models are not suitable for assessing exit strategies because they do not account for epidemic resurgence when social distancing ends prematurely (e.g., statistical curve fits) nor permit scenario exploration in specific locations. We developed an SEIR-type mechanistic epidemiological model of COVID-19 dynamics to explore temporally variable non-pharmaceutical interventions. We provide an interactive tool and code to estimate the transmission parameter, β, and the effective reproduction number, R

Identifiers

PMID32511583
PMCPMC7276010

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.