ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2020
Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Traveller screening is being used to limit further global spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) following its recent emergence. Here, we project the impact of different travel screening programs given remaining uncertainty around the values of key nCoV life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected travellers. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most cases missed by screening are fundamentally undetectable, because they have not yet developed symptoms and are unaware they were exposed. These findings emphasize the need for measures to track travellers who become ill after being missed by a travel screening program. We make our model available for interactive use so stakeholders can explore scenarios of interest using the most up-to-date information. We hope these findings contribute to evidence-based policy to combat the spread of nCoV, and to prospective planning to mitigate future emerging pathogens.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.