Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32511416›Full record

ArticlebioRxiv : the preprint server for biology2020

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US.

Michael Worobey, Jonathan Pekar, Brendan B Larsen, Martha I Nelson, Verity Hill, Jeffrey B Joy, Andrew Rambaut, Marc A Suchard, Joel O Wertheim, Philippe Lemey

Abstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Michael WorobeyDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
Jonathan PekarBioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Brendan B LarsenDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
Martha I NelsonFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA.
Verity HillInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK.
Jeffrey B JoyDepartment of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Andrew RambautInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK.
Marc A SuchardDepartment of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
Joel O WertheimDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Philippe LemeyKU Leuven Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Clinical and Evolutionary Virology, Leuven, Belgium.

Funding

Technology CoreU19AI135995 · NIAID · SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE · PI Kristian Graugaard Andersen · 2018 to 2026
$32.0M
San Diego Biomedical Informatics Education & Research (SABER)T15LM011271 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SHAMIM NEMATI · 2012 to 2026
$9.7M
Next-Generation Phylodynamics-targeted Partner Service Models for Combined HIV PreventionR01AI136056 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI BENBOW, NANETTE DIOR, D'AQUILA, RICHARD · 2018 to 2022
$4.0M
Automation and Evaluation of Real-Time Transmission Network-Based HIV Prevention Services in New York CityR01AI135992 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI WERTHEIM, JOEL OKRENT · 2018 to 2022
$3.6M
Public Health Implications of HIV Transmission NetworksK01AI110181 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI WERTHEIM, JOEL OKRENT · 2014 to 2018
$668k
NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI110181NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI135992NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI136056NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI135995NLM NIH HHS T15 LM011271Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critically important for public health response and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here, we elucidate when, where and how the earliest sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and the United States (US). Our results refute prior findings erroneously linking cases in January 2020 with outbreaks that occurred weeks later. Instead, rapid interventions successfully prevented onward transmission of those early cases in Germany and Washington State. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and US transmission networks. Our analyses reveal an extended period of missed opportunity when intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established in the US and Europe.

Identifiers

PMID32511416
PMCPMC7265688

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.