Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32508027›Full record

ArticleClinical and translational medicine2020

Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population-based real-world study.

Shaobo Mo, Xin Cai, Zheng Zhou, Yaqi Li, Xiang Hu, Xiaoji Ma, Long Zhang, Sanjun Cai, Junjie Peng

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Article in Clinical and translational medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Shaobo MoDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China.
Xin CaiDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Shanghai Proton and Heavy Ion Center, Shanghai, China.
Zheng ZhouDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China.
Yaqi LiDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China.
Xiang HuDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China.
Xiaoji MaDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China.
Long ZhangDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China.
Sanjun CaiDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China.
Junjie PengDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0371-4960

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China 31470826National Natural Science Foundation of China 31670858National Natural Science Foundation of China 81672374Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality 16411966300Wu Jieping Medical Foundation 320.6750.18136
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThis study aims to develop functional nomograms to predict specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival (OS) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.

methodsCRC case data were retrospectively recruited from a large population-based public dataset. Nomograms were developed to predict the probabilities of specific distant metastatic sites and OS of CRC patients. The performance of nomogram was evaluated with the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

resultsA total of 142 343 cases were included in the current study. On the basis of univariate and multivariate analyses, clinicopathological features were correlated with specific distant metastatic sites and survival outcomes and were used to establish nomograms. The nomograms showed excellent accuracy in predicting specific distant metastatic sites. The C-indexes for the prediction of liver, lung, bone, and brain metastases were 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81-0.83), 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78-0.81), 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79-0.86), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.84), respectively. Then, a prognostic nomogram integrating clinicopathological features and specific distant metastatic sites was established to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS of CRC, with AUCs of 0.764 (95% CI, 0.741-0.783), 0.762 (95% CI, 0.745-0.781), and 0.745 (95% CI, 0.730-0.761), respectively. DCA showed that the prognostic nomogram had a better clinical application value than current TNM staging system.

conclusionsBased on clinicopathological features, original nomograms were constructed for clinicians to predict specific distant metastatic sites and OS of CRC patients. These models could help to support the postoperative personalized assessment.

Indexed as

colorectal cancerdecision curve analysisdistant metastasisnomogramoverall survival

Identifiers

PMID32508027
PMCPMC7240852

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.