ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020
Early characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Psychological crisis and emergency response in public health emergencies: a case study of the Mpox epidemic.BMC psychology · 2025Article
- An intelligent early warning system of analyzing Twitter data using machine learning on COVID-19 surveillance in the US.Expert systems with applications · 2022Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of BNT162b2 COVID-19 booster vaccination in the United States.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- What Is the Impact of Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics on the Pre-delta COVID-19 Epidemic Size in the United States?Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics of COVID-19 and Their Impact on the Epidemic Size in Ethiopia.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Investigating the relationship between reopening the economy and implementing control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.Public health · 2021Article
- Evaluation of work resumption strategies after COVID-19 reopening in the Chinese city of Shenzhen: a mathematical modeling study.Public health · 2021Article
- Effects of New York's Executive Order on Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality: A Modeling Study.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2021Article
- Role of media coverage in mitigating COVID-19 transmission: Evidence from China.Technological forecasting and social change · 2021Article
- Characteristics Analysis and Implications on the COVID-19 Reopening of Victoria, Australia.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2020Article
- Settings of virus exposure and their implications in the propagation of transmission networks in a COVID-19 outbreak.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2020Article
- Achieving Positive Mental Health and Wellbeing on the COVID-19 Frontline.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2020Article
- An Examination on the Transmission of COVID-19 and the Effect of Response Strategies: A Comparative Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesThe mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict its subsequent magnitude.
methodsWe collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from 16th January-15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent epidemic magnitude.
resultsWe identified a transition point from a slow- to a fast-growing phase for COVID-19 at 5.5 (95% CI, 4.6-6.4) days after the first report, and 30 confirmed cases marked a critical threshold for this transition. The average time for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 (time from 30-to-100) was 6.6 (5.3-7.9) days, and the average case-fatality rate in the first 100 confirmed cases (CFR-100) was 0.8% (0.2-1.4%). The subsequent epidemic size per million population was significantly associated with both of these indicators. We predicted a ranking of epidemic size in the cities based on these two indicators and found it highly correlated with the actual classification of epidemic size.
conclusionsEarly epidemic characteristics are important indicators for the size of the entire epidemic.
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