Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32502209›Full record

ArticlePloS one2020

Using machine learning models to predict the initiation of renal replacement therapy among chronic kidney disease patients.

Erik Dovgan, Anton Gradišek, Mitja Luštrek, Mohy Uddin, Aldilas Achmad Nursetyo, Sashi Kiran Annavarajula, Yu-Chuan Li, Shabbir Syed-Abdul

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
5.7field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 59 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.

Erik DovganDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.ORCID 0000-0003-4671-8627
Anton GradišekDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.ORCID 0000-0001-6480-9587
Mitja LuštrekDepartment of Intelligent Systems, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Mohy UddinExecutive Office, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Aldilas Achmad NursetyoTaipei Medical University, Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, College of Medical Science and Technology, Taipei, Taiwan.
Sashi Kiran AnnavarajulaDepartment of Nephrology, Yashoda Hospitals, Malakpet, Hyderabad, India.
Yu-Chuan LiTaipei Medical University, Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, College of Medical Science and Technology, Taipei, Taiwan.
Shabbir Syed-AbdulTaipei Medical University, Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, College of Medical Science and Technology, Taipei, Taiwan.
Jožef Stefan Institute · SITaipei Medical University · TWKing Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences · SAYashoda Hospital · IN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Starting renal replacement therapy (RRT) for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) at an optimal time, either with hemodialysis or kidney transplantation, is crucial for patient's well-being and for successful management of the condition. In this paper, we explore the possibilities of creating forecasting models to predict the onset of RRT 3, 6, and 12 months from the time of the patient's first diagnosis with CKD, using only the comorbidities data from National Health Insurance from Taiwan. The goal of this study was to see whether a limited amount of data (including comorbidities but not considering laboratory values which are expensive to obtain in low- and medium-income countries) can provide a good basis for such predictive models. On the other hand, in developed countries, such models could allow policy-makers better planning and allocation of resources for treatment. Using data from 8,492 patients, we obtained the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.773 for predicting RRT within 12 months from the time of CKD diagnosis. The results also show that there is no additional advantage in focusing only on patients with diabetes in terms of prediction performance. Although these results are not as such suitable for adoption into clinical practice, the study provides a strong basis and a variety of approaches for future studies of forecasting models in healthcare.

Indexed as

Machine LearningModels, BiologicalClinical Decision-MakingComorbidityDatasets as TopicDisease ProgressionHumansRenal Insufficiency, ChronicRenal Replacement TherapyRetrospective StudiesROC CurveSeverity of Illness IndexTaiwanTime FactorsTime-to-Treatment

Identifiers

PMID32502209
PMCPMC7274378
OpenAlexW3033515365

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.