Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32501409›Full record

ArticleArchives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique2020

Population vulnerability to COVID-19 in Europe: a burden of disease analysis.

Grant M A Wyper, Ricardo Assunção, Sarah Cuschieri, Brecht Devleeschauwer, Eilidh Fletcher, Juanita A Haagsma, Henk B M Hilderink, Jane Idavain, Tina Lesnik, Elena Von der Lippe and 10 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Immunization against Medically Important Human Coronaviruses of Public Health Concern.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2024
    Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million and infection fatality ratio, Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2022
    Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Social characterization of COVID-19 in the state of Amazonas, Brazil.American journal of translational research · 2022
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Grant M A WyperPlace and Wellbeing Directorate, Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2854-5822
Ricardo AssunçãoFood and Nutrition Department, National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal.
Sarah CuschieriDepartment of Anatomy, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Malta, Msida, Malta.
Brecht DevleeschauwerDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Eilidh FletcherData Driven Innovation Directorate, Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.
Juanita A HaagsmaDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Henk B M HilderinkNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Jane IdavainNational Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia.
Tina LesnikNational Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Elena Von der LippeDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Marek MajdanDepartment of Public Health, Institute for Global Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia.
Milena S MilicevicFaculty of Medicine University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
Elena PallariMRC Clinical Trials and Methodology Unit, University College London, London, UK.
José L PeñalvoUnit of Noncommunicable Diseases, Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
Sara M PiresNational Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark.
Dietrich PlaßExposure Assessment and Environmental Health Indicators, German Environment Agency, Berlin, Germany.
João V SantosMEDCIDS, Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.
Diane L StocktonPlace and Wellbeing Directorate, Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK.
Sofie Theresa ThomsenNational Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark.
Ian GrantData Driven Innovation Directorate, Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEvidence has emerged showing that elderly people and those with pre-existing chronic health conditions may be at higher risk of developing severe health consequences from COVID-19. In Europe, this is of particular relevance with ageing populations living with non-communicable diseases, multi-morbidity and frailty. Published estimates of Years Lived with Disability (YLD) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study help to characterise the extent of these effects. Our aim was to identify the countries across Europe that have populations at highest risk from COVID-19 by using estimates of population age structure and YLD for health conditions linked to severe illness from COVID-19.

methodsPopulation and YLD estimates from GBD 2017 were extracted for 45 countries in Europe. YLD was restricted to a list of specific health conditions associated with being at risk of developing severe consequences from COVID-19 based on guidance from the United Kingdom Government. This guidance also identified individuals aged 70 years and above as being at higher risk of developing severe health consequences. Study outcomes were defined as: (i) proportion of population aged 70 years and above; and (ii) rate of YLD for COVID-19 vulnerable health conditions across all ages. Bivariate groupings were established for each outcome and combined to establish overall population-level vulnerability.

resultsCountries with the highest proportions of elderly residents were Italy, Greece, Germany, Portugal and Finland. When assessments of population-level YLD rates for COVID-19 vulnerable health conditions were made, the highest rates were observed for Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina. A bivariate analysis indicated that the countries at high-risk across both measures of vulnerability were: Bulgaria; Portugal; Latvia; Lithuania; Greece; Germany; Estonia; and Sweden.

conclusionRoutine estimates of population structures and non-fatal burden of disease measures can be usefully combined to create composite indicators of vulnerability for rapid assessments, in this case to severe health consequences from COVID-19. Countries with available results for sub-national regions within their country, or national burden of disease studies that also use sub-national levels for burden quantifications, should consider using non-fatal burden of disease estimates to estimate geographical vulnerability to COVID-19.

Indexed as

Burden of diseaseCoronavirusCOVID-19DALYEuropean burden of disease networkGBDSummary measures of population healthVulnerabilityYLD

Identifiers

PMID32501409
PMCPMC7256342

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.