ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2020
Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics "on a back-of-envelope": Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?
Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 69 papers.
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Who cites it
69 citing papers in PubMed, 208 citations in OpenAlex.
- A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- A tight fit of the SIR dynamic epidemic model to daily cases of COVID-19 reported during the 2021-2022 Omicron surge in New York City: A novel approach.Statistical methods in medical research · 2024Article
- MGLEP: Multimodal Graph Learning for Modeling Emerging Pandemics with Big Data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Social and Ethical Implications of Digital Crisis Technologies: Case Study of Pandemic Simulation Models During the COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Review
- Analysis of a non-integer order mathematical model for double strains of dengue and COVID-19 co-circulation using an efficient finite-difference method.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Systematic description of COVID-19 pandemic using exact SIR solutions and Gumbel distributions.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy.PloS one · 2023Article
- Dynamic mechanism of eliminating COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy through web search.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
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- A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling to study the impact of immigration on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study for Venezuela.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2022Article
- Modified SIR model for COVID-19 transmission dynamics: Simulation with case study of UK, US and India.Results in physics · 2022Article
- BeCaked: An Explainable Artificial Intelligence Model for COVID-19 Forecasting.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The fluctuation analysis of public opinion energy: Modeling social group opinion base on the event of social networks.Intelligent systems with applications · 2022Article
- A Skew Logistic Distribution for Modelling COVID-19 Waves and Its Evaluation Using the Empirical Survival Jensen-Shannon Divergence.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
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- Analysis of the second wave of COVID-19 in India based on SEIR model.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19.The European physical journal. B · 2022Article
- Fractional optimal control of compartmental SIR model of COVID-19: Showing the impact of effective vaccination.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2022Article
9 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Basing on existence of the mathematically sequential reduction of the three-compartmental (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered/Removed) model to the Verhulst (logistic) equation with the parameters determined by the basic characteristic of epidemic process, this model is tested in application to the recent data on COVID-19 outbreak reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. It is shown that such a simple model adequately reproduces the epidemic dynamics not only qualitatively but for a number of countries quantitatively with a high degree of correlation that allows to use it for predictive estimations. In addition, some features of SIR model are discussed in the context, how its parameters and conditions reflect measures attempted for the disease growth prevention that is also clearly indicated by deviations from such model solutions.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.