ArticleJournal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract2021
Development and Validation of a Clinical Risk Score for Intensive Care Resource Utilization After Colon Cancer Surgery: a Practical Guide to the Selection of Patients During COVID-19.
Article in Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Abstract
backgroundThe purpose of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model and clinical risk score for Intensive Care Resource Utilization after colon cancer surgery.
methodsAdult (≥ 18 years old) patients from the 2012 to 2018 ACS-NSQIP colectomy-targeted database who underwent elective colon cancer surgery were identified. A prediction model for 30-day postoperative Intensive Care Resource Utilization was developed and transformed into a clinical risk score based on the regression coefficients. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The model was validated in a separate test set of similar patients.
resultsIn total, 54,893 patients underwent an elective colon cancer resection, of which 1224 (2.2%) required postoperative Intensive Care Resource Utilization. The final prediction model retained six variables: age (≥ 70; OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.68-2.14), sex (male; OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.54-1.95), American Society of Anesthesiologists score (III/IV; OR 2.52, 95% CI 2.15-2.95), cardiorespiratory disease (yes; OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.94-2.53), functional status (dependent; OR 2.81, 95% CI 2.22-3.56), and operative approach (open surgery; OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.51-1.93). The model demonstrated good discrimination (AUC = 0.73). A clinical risk score was developed, and the risk of requiring postoperative Intensive Care Resource Utilization ranged from 0.03 (0 points) to 19.0% (8 points). The model performed well on test set validation (AUC = 0.73).
conclusionA prediction model and clinical risk score for postoperative Intensive Care Resource Utilization after colon cancer surgery was developed and validated.
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