ArticleBMC medicine2020
Real-time monitoring the transmission potential of COVID-19 in Singapore, March 2020.
Article in BMC medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 66 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
66 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.BMC public health · 2023Pooled it
- Systematic review and meta-analyses of superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 infections.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Article
- Attribution of super-spreaders to the COVID-19 outbreak.Biosafety and health · 2025Article
- Optimal algorithms for controlling infectious diseases in real time using noisy infection data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Estimating Re and overdispersion in secondary cases from the size of identical sequence clusters of SARS-CoV-2.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Evaluating the impact of large-scale nucleic acid testing and home quarantine on a novel emerging infectious disease prevention and control: a dynamic modeling approach.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Utility of ISARIC 4C Mortality Score, Vaccination History, and Anti-S Antibody Titre in Predicting Risk of Severe COVID-19.Viruses · 2024Article
- Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Article
- Accuracy of Inferences About the Reproductive Number and Superspreading Potential of SARS-CoV-2 with Incomplete Contact Tracing Data.Research square · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal reproduction number with Bayesian model selection for evaluation of emerging infectious disease transmissibility: an application to COVID-19 national surveillance data.BMC medical research methodology · 2023Article
- A statistical framework for tracking the time-varying superspreading potential of COVID-19 epidemic.Epidemics · 2023Article
- Identifying High-Risk Events for COVID-19 Transmission: Estimating the Risk of Clustering Using Nationwide Data.Viruses · 2023Article
- Meta-MUMS COVID-19 web server: an online daily monitoring server for comparative and cumulative epidemiological analysis.Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health · 2023Article
- Adaptive resources allocation CUSUM for binomial count data monitoring with application to COVID-19 hotspot detection.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Modeling the positive testing rate of COVID-19 in South Africa using a semi-parametric smoother for binomial data.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
6 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAs of March 31, 2020, the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic that started in China in December 2019 is now generating local transmission around the world. The geographic heterogeneity and associated intervention strategies highlight the need to monitor in real time the transmission potential of COVID-19. Singapore provides a unique case example for monitoring transmission, as there have been multiple disease clusters, yet transmission remains relatively continued.
methodsHere we estimate the effective reproduction number, R
resultsThe local incidence curve displays sub-exponential growth dynamics, with the reproduction number following a declining trend and reaching an estimate at 0.7 (95% CI 0.3, 1.0) during the first transmission wave by February 14, 2020, while the overall R based on the cluster size distribution as of March 17, 2020, was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI 0.4, 1.02). The overall mean reporting delay was estimated at 6.4 days (95% CI 5.8, 6.9), but it was shorter among imported cases compared to local cases (mean 4.3 vs. 7.6 days, Wilcoxon test, p < 0.001).
conclusionThe trajectory of the reproduction number in Singapore underscores the significant effects of successful containment efforts in Singapore, but it also suggests the need to sustain social distancing and active case finding efforts to stomp out all active chains of transmission.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.