ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2021
The Potential Impact of Long-Acting Cabotegravir for HIV Prevention in South Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Advancing youth HIV prevention and care in Uganda: stakeholder-informed innovations through implementation science, protocol for a randomized controlled trial.BMC health services research · 2026Trial
- The impact of the DREAMS partnership on HIV incidence among young women who sell sex in two Zimbabwean cities: results of a non-randomised study.BMJ global health · 2021Trial
- Article
- Dynamic choice HIV prevention with long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in east, central, southern, and west Africa: a cost-effectiveness modelling analysis.The lancet. HIV · 2025Article
- The elimination of HIV/AIDS depends on prevention and treatment strategies that address health inequalities.Cadernos de saude publica · 2025Article
- The future of PrEP: novel long-acting HIV prevention agents for adolescent women.The Pan African medical journal · 2024Article
- Efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence.Nature medicine · 2023Article
- Advancing the use of Long-Acting Extended Delivery formulations for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa: challenges, opportunities, and recommendations.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
- What will it take for an injectable ARV to change the face of the HIV epidemic in high-prevalence countries? Considerations regarding drug costs and operations.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Review
- Article
- Cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis and expanded antiretroviral therapy for preventing HIV infections in the presence of drug resistance among men who have sex with men in China: A mathematical modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- The question of the question: impactful implementation science to address the HIV epidemic.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Article
- Preferences for Long-Acting and Alternative Modalities for PrEP among Military Men Who Have Sex with Men: Segmentation Results of an Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis Study.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2022Article
- Planning for decentralized, simplified prEP: Learnings from potential end users in Ga-Rankuwa, gauteng, South Africa.Frontiers in reproductive health · 2022Article
- Microbial mismanagement: how inadequate treatments for vaginal dysbiosis drive the HIV epidemic in women.Seminars in immunology · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAlthough effective, some oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users face barriers to adherence using daily pills, which could be reduced by long-acting formulations. Long-acting cabotegravir (CAB LA) is a potential new injectable formulation for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) PrEP being tested in phase III trials.
methodsWe use a mathematical model of the HIV epidemic in South Africa to simulate CAB LA uptake by population groups with different levels of HIV risk. We compare the trajectory of the HIV epidemic until 2050 with and without CAB LA to estimate the impact of the intervention.
resultsDelivering CAB LA to 10% of the adult population could avert more than 15% of new infections from 2023 to 2050. The impact would be lower but more efficient if delivered to populations at higher HIV risk: 127 person-years of CAB LA use would be required to avert one HIV infection within 5 years if used by all adults and 47 person-years if used only by the highest risk women.
conclusionsIf efficacious, a CAB LA intervention could have a substantial impact on the course of the HIV epidemic in South Africa. Uptake by those at the highest risk of infection, particularly young women, could improve the efficiency of any intervention.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.