Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32490370›Full record

ArticleEClinicalMedicine2020

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-ART HIV drug resistance testing in Kenyan women.

Horacio A Duarte, Joseph B Babigumira, Eva A Enns, David C Stauffer, Robert W Shafer, Ingrid A Beck, Louis P Garrison, Michael H Chung, Lisa M Frenkel, Eran Bendavid

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
0.1field-weighted citation impact, top 46% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Horacio A DuarteDepartment of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.
Joseph B BabigumiraDepartment of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.
Eva A EnnsSchool of Public Health, Division of Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States.
David C StaufferDepartment of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.
Robert W ShaferDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States.
Ingrid A BeckSeattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, WA, United States.
Louis P GarrisonThe Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy, and Economics (CHOICE) Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.
Michael H ChungDepartment of Medicine, Aga Khan University, Nairobi, Kenya.
Lisa M FrenkelDepartment of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.
Eran BendavidDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States.
University of Washington · USStanford University · USAga Khan University Nairobi · KEUniversity of Minnesota · US

Funding

University of Washington/Fred Hutch Center for AIDS ResearchP30AI027757 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI EDWIN ROBERTO ORELLANA · 1988 to 2026
$104.9M
Pediatric Scientist Development Program (PSDP) [K12]K12HD000850 · NICHD · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Sallie R. Permar · 1987 to 2026
$44.1M
VENEREAL DISEASET32AI007140 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Julia Cook Dombrowski · 1985 to 2026
$19.4M
Making Better Decisions: Policy Modeling for AIDS and Drug AbuseR01DA015612 · NIDA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI OWENS, DOUGLAS K · 2002 to 2017
$9.4M
HIV Drug Resistance DatabaseR24AI136618 · NIAID · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI ROBERT William SHAFER · 2018 to 2026
$7.3M
Drug-resistance testing in Kenya to improve ART suppression of HIV replicationR01AI100037 · NIAID · SEATTLE CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL · PI FRENKEL, LISA M · 2012 to 2014
$3.1M
Big Data Analysis of HIV Risk and Epidemiology in Sub-Saharan AfricaR01AI127250 · NIAID · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI BENDAVID, ERAN, PATEL, CHIRAG J. · 2017 to 2020
$2.7M
Mathematical modeling and analysis of HIV care trajectories and retention in care challengesK25AI118476 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI ENNS, EVA A · 2015 to 2019
$649k
NIAID NIH HHS K25 AI118476NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027757NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI100037NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI127250NIAID NIH HHS R24 AI136618NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI007140NICHD NIH HHS K12 HD000850NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA015612
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe prevalence of pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR) to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) agents is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, which may decrease the effectiveness of efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs. However, due to recent safety concerns, there has been hesitancy to replace efavirenz-based ART with dolutegravir in women of reproductive potential. Our objective was to evaluate whether PDR testing for women not initiating dolutegravir-based ART would be a cost-effective strategy to address the challenges posed by PDR.

methodsWe developed an HIV drug resistance model that simulates the emergence and transmission of resistance mutations, calibrated to the Kenyan epidemic. We modeled three care strategies for PDR testing among women not initiating dolutegravir-based ART: no PDR testing, PDR testing with a low-cost point mutation assay, known as oligonucleotide ligation assay (OLA), and PDR testing with consensus sequencing. Using a health sector perspective, this model was used to evaluate the health outcomes, lifetime costs, and cost-effectiveness under each strategy over a 15-year time horizon starting in 2019.

findingsOLA and CS PDR testing were projected to have incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of $10,741/QALY gained and $134,396/QALY gained, respectively, which are not cost-effective by national income standards. Viral suppression rates among women at 12 months after ART initiation were 87·8%, 89·0%, and 89·3% with no testing, OLA testing, and CS testing, respectively. PDR testing with OLA and CS were associated with a 0.5% and 0.6% reduction in incidence rate compared to no PDR testing. Initial PDR prevalence among women was 13.1% in 2019. By 2034, this prevalence was 17·6%, 17·4%, and 17·3% with no testing, OLA testing, and CS testing, respectively.

interpretationPDR testing for women is unlikely to be cost-effective in Kenya whether one uses a low-cost assay, such as OLA, or consensus sequencing.

fundingNational Institutes of Health, Gilead Sciences.

Indexed as

AfricaCost-effectiveness analysisDolutegravir-based ARTDrug resistance testingEfavirenz-based ARTHIVPretreatment drug resistanceResource-limited setting

Identifiers

PMID32490370
PMCPMC7256304
OpenAlexW2922899048

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.