Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32480148›Full record

ArticleThe Science of the total environment2020

Estimating resilience of crop production systems: From theory to practice.

Matteo Zampieri, Christof J Weissteiner, Bruna Grizzetti, Andrea Toreti, Maurits van den Berg, Frank Dentener

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Science of the total environment, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  4. Integration of crop modeling and sensing into molecular breeding for nutritional quality and stress tolerance.TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik · 2025
    Review
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  17. Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2020
    Article
  18. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Matteo ZampieriEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. Electronic address: matteo.zampieri@ec.europa.eu.
Christof J WeissteinerEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. Electronic address: christof.weissteiner@ec.europa.eu.
Bruna GrizzettiEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. Electronic address: bruna.grizzetti@ec.europa.eu.
Andrea ToretiEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. Electronic address: andrea.toreti@ec.europa.eu.
Maurits van den BergEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. Electronic address: maurits.vandenberg@ec.europa.eu.
Frank DentenerEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. Electronic address: frank.dentener@ec.europa.eu.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Agricultural production systems are sensitive to weather and climate anomalies and extremes as well as to other environmental and socio-economic adverse events. An adequate evaluation of the resilience of such systems helps to assess food security and the capacity of society to cope with the effects of global warming and the associated increase of climate extremes. Here, we propose and apply a simple indicator of resilience of annual crop production that can be estimated from crop production time series. First, we address the problem of quantifying resilience in a simplified theoretical framework, focusing on annual crops. This results in the proposal of an indicator, measured by the reciprocal of the squared coefficient of variance, which is proportional to the return period of the largest shocks that the crop production system can absorb, and which is consistent with the original ecological definition of resilience. Subsequently, we show the sensitivity of the crop resilience indicator to the level of management of the crop production system, to the frequency of extreme events as well as to simplified socio-economic impacts of the production losses. Finally, we demonstrate the practical applicability of the indicator using historical production data at national and sub-national levels for France. The results show that the value of the resilience indicator steeply increases with crop diversity until six crops are considered, and then levels off. The effect of diversity on production resilience is highest when crops are more diverse (i.e. as reflected in less well correlated production time series). In the case of France, the indicator reaches about 60% of the value that would be expected if all crop production time-series were uncorrelated.

Indexed as

Agricultural production stabilityClimate adaptationClimate changeCrop diversityCrop yield variabilityExtreme eventsResilience indicator

Identifiers

PMID32480148
PMCPMC7374405

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.