ArticleSports medicine - open2020
The Value of Preseason Screening for Injury Prediction: The Development and Internal Validation of a Multivariable Prognostic Model to Predict Indirect Muscle Injury Risk in Elite Football (Soccer) Players.
Article in Sports medicine - open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03782389 (The Role of Periodic Health Examination in Determining Lower Extremity Muscle Injury Risk in Elite Football), which is not on this map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
The Role of Periodic Health Examination in Determining Lower Extremity Muscle Injury Risk in Elite Football (Soccer): A Protocol for an Investigation Into Multivariable Prognostic Model Development, Validation and Prognostic Factor Exploration
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- Development and validation of a machine learning model for non-contact injury prediction based on lower limb strength asymmetry in professional football.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Lower extremity movement quality in professional team sport athletes: Inter-rater agreement and relationships with quantitative results from the corresponding pattern.BMC sports science, medicine & rehabilitation · 2024Article
- Evaluation of the lower extremity functional test to predict lower limb injuries in professional male footballers.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Observational
- Targeted validation: validating clinical prediction models in their intended population and setting.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn elite football (soccer), periodic health examination (PHE) could provide prognostic factors to predict injury risk.
objectiveTo develop and internally validate a prognostic model to predict individualised indirect (non-contact) muscle injury (IMI) risk during a season in elite footballers, only using PHE-derived candidate prognostic factors.
methodsRoutinely collected preseason PHE and injury data were used from 152 players over 5 seasons (1st July 2013 to 19th May 2018). Ten candidate prognostic factors (12 parameters) were included in model development. Multiple imputation was used to handle missing values. The outcome was any time-loss, index indirect muscle injury (I-IMI) affecting the lower extremity. A full logistic regression model was fitted, and a parsimonious model developed using backward-selection to remove factors that exceeded a threshold that was equivalent to Akaike's Information Criterion (alpha 0.157). Predictive performance was assessed through calibration, discrimination and decision-curve analysis, averaged across all imputed datasets. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping and adjusted for overfitting.
resultsDuring 317 participant-seasons, 138 I-IMIs were recorded. The parsimonious model included only age and frequency of previous IMIs; apparent calibration was perfect, but discrimination was modest (C-index = 0.641, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.580 to 0.703), with clinical utility evident between risk thresholds of 37-71%. After validation and overfitting adjustment, performance deteriorated (C-index = 0.589 (95% CI = 0.528 to 0.651); calibration-in-the-large = - 0.009 (95% CI = - 0.239 to 0.239); calibration slope = 0.718 (95% CI = 0.275 to 1.161)).
conclusionThe selected PHE data were insufficient prognostic factors from which to develop a useful model for predicting IMI risk in elite footballers. Further research should prioritise identifying novel prognostic factors to improve future risk prediction models in this field.
trial registrationNCT03782389.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.