ArticleThe Journal of infection2020
Modelling SARS-COV2 Spread in London: Approaches to Lift the Lockdown.
Article in The Journal of infection, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of spatial epidemiological modeling approaches applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions as implemented in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2025Pooled it
- Do COVID-19 Infectious Disease Models Incorporate the Social Determinants of Health? A Systematic Review.Public health reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Spatial Epidemiological Modeling Approaches Applied During the COVID-19 Pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK: a rapid mapping review and interactive evidence gap map.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2024Review
- Effective contact tracing for COVID-19: A systematic review.Global epidemiology · 2023Review
- Topic and Trend Analysis of Weibo Discussions About COVID-19 Medications Before and After China's Exit from the Zero-COVID Policy: Retrospective Infoveillance Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2023Article
- Evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate for COVID-19 management and alternative strategies.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Assessing potential insights of an imperfect testing strategy: Parameter estimation and practical identifiability using early COVID-19 data in India.Communications in nonlinear science & numerical simulation · 2023Article
- Three-layer model for the control of epidemic infection over multiple social networks.SN applied sciences · 2023Article
- Article
- Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada and their association with COVID-19 hospitalization rates.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2022Article
- Modelling the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission from mobility maps.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Correlation between Population Density and COVID-19 Cases during the Third Wave in Malaysia: Effect of the Delta Variant.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Borough-level COVID-19 forecasting in London using deep learning techniques and a novel MSE-Moran's I loss function.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Analysis of social media data for public emotion on the Wuhan lockdown event during the COVID-19 pandemic.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2021Article
- Effectiveness of Contact Tracing for Viral Disease Mitigation and Suppression: Evidence-Based Review.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Review
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK.
methodsA mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19.
resultsImmediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone.
conclusionsA combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.