ArticleBreast cancer research : BCR2020
Modeling the natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ based on population data.
Article in Breast cancer research : BCR, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Screening for breast cancer: a systematic review update to inform the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care guideline.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Nanoluciferase-CD63 labeling reveals extracellular vesicle kinetics in a mouse intraductal model of ductal carcinoma in situ.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2026Article
- SpaceBF: spatial coexpression analysis using Bayesian fused approaches in spatial omics datasets.GigaScience · 2026Article
- Influence of follow-up, screening age, interval, and compliance on overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS): A modelling study.PloS one · 2026Article
- Healthy lifestyles, screening, and breast cancer mortality in women with different risk of disease.The oncologist · 2025Article
- Watchful waiting for ductal carcinoma in situ: are we ready to step back?European radiology · 2025Article
- Super-Resolution Ultrasound Radiomics Can Predict the Upstaging of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ.Cancer medicine · 2025Article
- The natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ: development, validation, and estimated outcomes of the SimDCIS model.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
- Ultrasound characteristics comparison and development of a predictive nomogram for intraductal papilloma and ductal carcinomaFrontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Impact of Breast Cancer Screening on 10-Year Net Survival in Canadian Women Age 40-49 Years.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2023Article
- Inflammatory Skin Change From a Small 0.9 cm Primary Breast Cancer Not Seen on Initial Imaging: A Case Report.Cureus · 2023Article
- Overdiagnosis Due to Screening Mammography for Breast Cancer among Women Aged 40 Years and Over: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of personalized medicine · 2023Review
- Clinical value of contralateral breast cancers detected by pre-operative MRI in patients diagnosed with DCIS: a population-based cohort study.European radiology · 2023Article
- Tumour Growth Models of Breast Cancer for Evaluating Early Detection-A Summary and a Simulation Study.Cancers · 2023Article
- Treatment of Ductal Carcinoma in situ: A Register-Based Study of Norwegian Women Diagnosed between 1995 and 2018.Breast care (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Review
- Overcoming Barriers in Ductal Carcinoma In Situ Management: From Overtreatment to Optimal Treatment.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2022Article
- Low-risk DCIS. What is it? Observe or excise?Virchows Archiv : an international journal of pathology · 2022Review
- Reflecting on 20 years of breast cancer modeling in CISNET: Recommendations for future cancer systems modeling efforts.PLoS computational biology · 2021Review
- Treating (low-risk) DCIS patients: What can we learn from real-world cancer registry evidence?Breast cancer research and treatment · 2021Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has increased substantially since the introduction of mammography screening. Nevertheless, little is known about the natural history of preclinical DCIS in the absence of biopsy or complete excision.
methodsTwo well-established population models evaluated six possible DCIS natural history submodels. The submodels assumed 30%, 50%, or 80% of breast lesions progress from undetectable DCIS to preclinical screen-detectable DCIS; each model additionally allowed or prohibited DCIS regression. Preclinical screen-detectable DCIS could also progress to clinical DCIS or invasive breast cancer (IBC). Applying US population screening dissemination patterns, the models projected age-specific DCIS and IBC incidence that were compared to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Models estimated mean sojourn time (MST) in the preclinical screen-detectable DCIS state, overdiagnosis, and the risk of progression from preclinical screen-detectable DCIS.
resultsWithout biopsy and surgical excision, the majority of DCIS (64-100%) in the preclinical screen-detectable state progressed to IBC in submodels assuming no DCIS regression (36-100% in submodels allowing for DCIS regression). DCIS overdiagnosis differed substantially between models and submodels, 3.1-65.8%. IBC overdiagnosis ranged 1.3-2.4%. Submodels assuming DCIS regression resulted in a higher DCIS overdiagnosis than submodels without DCIS regression. MST for progressive DCIS varied between 0.2 and 2.5 years.
conclusionsOur findings suggest that the majority of screen-detectable but unbiopsied preclinical DCIS lesions progress to IBC and that the MST is relatively short. Nevertheless, due to the heterogeneity of DCIS, more research is needed to understand the progression of DCIS by grades and molecular subtypes.
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