Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32460229›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of hygiene and environmental health2020

Estimation of the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in China.

Chong You, Yuhao Deng, Wenjie Hu, Jiarui Sun, Qiushi Lin, Feng Zhou, Cheng Heng Pang, Yuan Zhang, Zhengchao Chen, Xiao-Hua Zhou

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of hygiene and environmental health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 142 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
142citing papers in PubMed, 9 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

142 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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82 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Chong YouBeijing International Center for Mathematical Research, Peking University, China.
Yuhao DengSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, China.
Wenjie HuSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, China.
Jiarui SunSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, China.
Qiushi LinSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, China.
Feng ZhouDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, China.
Cheng Heng PangFaculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, China.
Yuan ZhangNational Research Institute for Health and Family Planning, China.
Zhengchao ChenBeijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Capital Medical University, China.
Xiao-Hua ZhouBeijing International Center for Mathematical Research, Peking University, China; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, China. Electronic address: azhou@math.pku.edu.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of March 31, 2020, a total of 82,631 cases of COVID-19 in China were confirmed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.

methodsThree approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers.

resultsA total of 198 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 139 dates of infections were identified among 14,829 confirmed cases outside Hubei Province as reported as of March 31, 2020. Based on this information, we found that the serial interval had an average of 4.60 days with a standard deviation of 5.55 days, the incubation period had an average of 8.00 days with a standard deviation of 4.75 days and the infectious period had an average of 13.96 days with a standard deviation of 5.20 days. The estimated controlled reproduction numbers, R

conclusionsThe controlled reproduction number in China is much lower than one in all regions of China by now. It fell below one within 30 days from the implementations of unprecedent containment measures, which indicates that the strong measures taken by China government was effective to contain the epidemic. Nonetheless, efforts are still needed in order to end the current epidemic as imported cases from overseas pose a high risk of a second outbreak.

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusModels, StatisticalBasic Reproduction NumberChinaCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Disease OutbreaksHumansPandemicsPneumonia, ViralSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID32460229
PMCPMC7211652

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.