Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32457146›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020

Past and future decline of tropical pelagic biodiversity.

Moriaki Yasuhara, Chih-Lin Wei, Michal Kucera, Mark J Costello, Derek P Tittensor, Wolfgang Kiessling, Timothy C Bonebrake, Clay R Tabor, Ran Feng, Andrés Baselga and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  7. Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025
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  17. A Late Pleistocene coastal ecosystem in French Guiana was hyperdiverse relative to today.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Moriaki YasuharaSwire Institute of Marine Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; moriakiyasuhara@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0003-0990-1764
Chih-Lin WeiInstitute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, 106 Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID 0000-0001-9430-0060
Michal KuceraMARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-7817-9018
Mark J CostelloSchool of Environment, The University of Auckland, 1142 Auckland, New Zealand.
Derek P TittensorDepartment of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2 Canada.
Wolfgang KiesslingGeoZentrum Nordbayern, Department of Geography and Geosciences, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, 91054 Erlangen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-1088-2014
Timothy C BonebrakeSchool of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Clay R TaborDepartment of Geosciences, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269.
Ran FengDepartment of Geosciences, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269.
Andrés BaselgaDepartamento de Zoología, Genética y Antropología Física, Facultad de Biología, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-7914-7109
Kerstin KretschmerMARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany.
Buntarou KusumotoFaculty of Science, University of the Ryukyus, 903-0213 Okinawa, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-5091-3575
Yasuhiro KubotaFaculty of Science, University of the Ryukyus, 903-0213 Okinawa, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-5723-4962

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A major research question concerning global pelagic biodiversity remains unanswered: when did the apparent tropical biodiversity depression (i.e., bimodality of latitudinal diversity gradient [LDG]) begin? The bimodal LDG may be a consequence of recent ocean warming or of deep-time evolutionary speciation and extinction processes. Using rich fossil datasets of planktonic foraminifers, we show here that a unimodal (or only weakly bimodal) diversity gradient, with a plateau in the tropics, occurred during the last ice age and has since then developed into a bimodal gradient through species distribution shifts driven by postglacial ocean warming. The bimodal LDG likely emerged before the Anthropocene and industrialization, and perhaps ∼15,000 y ago, indicating a strong environmental control of tropical diversity even before the start of anthropogenic warming. However, our model projections suggest that future anthropogenic warming further diminishes tropical pelagic diversity to a level not seen in millions of years.

Indexed as

BiodiversityClimate ChangeAnimalsFossilsGeologic SedimentsPlanktonTropical Climateclimate changeLast Glacial Maximumlatitudinal diversity gradientsplanktonic foraminiferatemperature

Identifiers

PMID32457146
PMCPMC7293716

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.