ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
The COVID-19 Infection in Italy: A Statistical Study of an Abnormally Severe Disease.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Exposure-lag response of air temperature on COVID-19 incidence in twelve Italian cities: A meta-analysis.Environmental research · 2022Pooled it
- Acute stress symptoms in general population during the first wave of COVID lockdown in Italy: Results from the COMET trial.Brain and behavior · 2023Article
- Psychological Toll of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An In-Depth Exploration of Anxiety, Depression, and Insomnia and the Influence of Quarantine Measures on Daily Life.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Retrospective Analyses of COVID-19 and Population Ageing Effects on Italian Mortality during the Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Liposomal Forms of Fluoroquinolones and Antifibrotics Decorated with Mannosylated Chitosan for Inhalation Drug Delivery.Pharmaceutics · 2023Article
- Improvements throughout the Three Waves of COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from 4 Million Inhabitants of North-West Italy.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- Determining the Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in Italy: Novel Epidemiological Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- Observational
- Survey on COVID-19-related mortality associated with occupational infection during the first phase of the pandemic: A systematic review.Experimental and therapeutic medicine · 2022Article
- The first 2 years of COVID-19 in Italy: Incidence, lethality, and health policies.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Needs and Perceptions of Patients With Dystonia During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Framework Analysis of Survey Responses From Italy.Frontiers in neurology · 2022Article
- Overview of dreadful consequences of SARS-CoV-2 invasion in Italy from March 2020 to March 2022.Bulletin of the National Research Centre · 2022Review
- Epidemiological Study of COVID-19 in Iran and the World: A Review Study.Infectious disorders drug targets · 2022Article
- Underdetection in a stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2022Article
- Article
- Sustainable and resilient strategies for touristic cities against COVID-19: An agent-based approach.Safety science · 2021Article
- Parkinson's disease patients' needs during the COVID-19 pandemic in a red zone: A framework analysis of open-ended survey questions.European journal of neurology · 2021Article
- Characterization of epidemiological distribution and outcome of COVID-19 in patients with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia: a nationwide retrospective multi-centre study during first wave in Italy.Orphanet journal of rare diseases · 2021Article
- A simple but complex enoughPhysica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2021Article
- Ag-Based Synergistic Antimicrobial Composites. A Critical Review.Nanomaterials (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, which became particularly invasive in Italy in March 2020. We show that the high apparent lethality or case fatality ratio (CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of the number of infection cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the lethality of COVID-19, we use the actual (March 2020) estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) of the pandemic based on the minimum observed CFR and analyze data obtained from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, a good representation of a "laboratory" case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses, we derive more realistic estimates of the real extent of the infection as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then isolate the dominant factors causing the abnormal severity of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the death count-the only data estimated to be reliable enough-to predict the total number of people infected and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could end.
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Registered trials
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