Predicting community dynamics of antibiotic-sensitive and -resistant species in fluctuating environments.

Microbes occupy almost every niche within and on their human hosts. Whether colonizing the gut, mouth or bloodstream, microorganisms face temporal fluctuations in resources and stressors within their niche but we still know little of how environmental fluctuations mediate certain microbial phenotypes, notably antimicrobial-resistant ones. For instance, do rapid or slow fluctuations in nutrient and antimicrobial concentrations select for, or against, resistance? We tackle this question using an ecological approach by studying the dynamics of a synthetic and pathogenic microbial community containing two species, one sensitive and the other resistant to an antibiotic drug where the community is exposed to different rates of environmental fluctuation. We provide mathematical models, supported by experimental data, to demonstrate that simple community outcomes, such as competitive exclusion, can shift to coexistence and ecosystem bistability as fluctuation rates vary. Theory gives mechanistic insight into how these dynamical regimes are related. Importantly, our approach highlights a fundamental difference between resistance in single-species populations, the context in which it is usually assayed, and that in communities. While fast environmental changes are known to select against resistance in single-species populations, here we show that they can promote the resistant species in mixed-species communities. Our theoretical observations are verified empirically using a two-species