Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32444358›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2020

Incidence, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics of severe coronavirus disease 2019 in California and Washington: prospective cohort study.

Joseph A Lewnard, Vincent X Liu, Michael L Jackson, Mark A Schmidt, Britta L Jewell, Jean P Flores, Chris Jentz, Graham R Northrup, Ayesha Mahmud, Arthur L Reingold and 4 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 117 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
117citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
7.5field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

117 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 224 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Trial
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  14. Observational
  15. Article
  16. Resource planning strategies for healthcare systems during a pandemic.European journal of operational research · 2023
    Article
  17. Modeling local coronavirus outbreaks.European journal of operational research · 2023
    Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Observational

57 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

Joseph A LewnardDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA jlewnard@berkeley.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8505-8839
Vincent X LiuDivision of Research, Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, CA, USA.
Michael L JacksonHealth Research Institute, Kaiser Permanente Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Mark A SchmidtCenter for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Northwest, Portland, OR, USA.
Britta L JewellMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Jean P FloresThe Care Management Institute, Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, California 94612.
Chris JentzThe Care Management Institute, Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, California 94612.
Graham R NorthrupCenter for Computational Biology, College of Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Ayesha MahmudDepartment of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Arthur L ReingoldDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
Maya PetersenDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
Nicholas P JewellDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
Scott YoungThe Care Management Institute, Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, California 94612.
Jim BellowsThe Care Management Institute, Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, California 94612.
Kaiser Permanente · USUniversity of California, Berkeley · USImperial College London · GBKaiser Permanente Center for Health Research · USKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute · USLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GB

Funding

Identifying pre-sepsis opportunities for early, targeted intervention - Equipment SupplementR35GM128672 · NIGMS · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI Vincent Liu · 2018 to 2026
$4.3M
Dev-Core-001P2CHD073964 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI JOSHUA R. GOLDSTEIN · 2019 to 2026
$2.9M
NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD073964NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM128672
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo understand the epidemiology and burden of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) during the first epidemic wave on the west coast of the United States.

designProspective cohort study.

settingKaiser Permanente integrated healthcare delivery systems serving populations in northern California, southern California, and Washington state.

participants1840 people with a first acute hospital admission for confirmed covid-19 by 22 April 2020, among 9 596 321 healthcare plan enrollees. Analyses of hospital length of stay and clinical outcomes included 1328 people admitted by 9 April 2020 (534 in northern California, 711 in southern California, and 83 in Washington).

main outcome measuresCumulative incidence of first acute hospital admission for confirmed covid-19, and subsequent probabilities of admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality, as well as duration of hospital stay and ICU stay. The effective reproduction number (

resultsAs of 22 April 2020, cumulative incidences of a first acute hospital admission for covid-19 were 15.6 per 100 000 cohort members in northern California, 23.3 per 100 000 in southern California, and 14.7 per 100 000 in Washington. Accounting for censoring of incomplete hospital stays among those admitted by 9 April 2020, the estimated median duration of stay among survivors was 9.3 days (with 95% staying 0.8 to 32.9 days) and among non-survivors was 12.7 days (1.6 to 37.7 days). The censoring adjusted probability of ICU admission for male patients was 48.5% (95% confidence interval 41.8% to 56.3%) and for female patients was 32.0% (26.6% to 38.4%). For patients requiring critical care, the median duration of ICU stay was 10.6 days (with 95% staying 1.3 to 30.8 days). The censoring adjusted case fatality ratio was 23.5% (95% confidence interval 19.6% to 28.2%) among male inpatients and 14.9% (11.8% to 18.6%) among female inpatients; mortality risk increased with age for both male and female patients. Reductions in

conclusionsAmong residents of California and Washington state enrolled in Kaiser Permanente healthcare plans who were admitted to hospital with covid-19, the probabilities of ICU admission, of long hospital stay, and of mortality were identified to be high. Incidence rates of new hospital admissions have stabilized or declined in conjunction with implementation of social distancing interventions.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBetacoronavirusCaliforniaCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Critical CareFemaleHospitalizationHumansIncidenceIntensive Care UnitsLength of StayMale

Identifiers

PMID32444358
PMCPMC7243800
OpenAlexW3027770179

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.