Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32441061›Full record

ArticleRespirology (Carlton, Vic.)2020

Risk prediction model in rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease.

Ho Cheol Kim, Jeong Seok Lee, Eun Young Lee, You-Jung Ha, Eun Jin Chae, Minkyu Han, Gary Cross, Joseph Barnett, Jacob Joseph, Jin Woo Song

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Respirology (Carlton, Vic.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Ho Cheol KimDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID 0000-0002-3154-4858
Jeong Seok LeeDivision of Rheumatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Eun Young LeeDivision of Rheumatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
You-Jung HaDivision of Rheumatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Republic of Korea.ORCID 0000-0001-6107-9523
Eun Jin ChaeDepartment of Radiology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Minkyu HanClinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Gary CrossDepartment of Radiology, Royal Free Hospital, Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Joseph BarnettDepartment of Radiology, Royal Brompton Hospital, Royal Brompton and Harefield NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Jacob JosephDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8054-2293
Jin Woo SongDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID 0000-0001-5121-3522

Funding

Wellcome Trust 209553
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectiveRA-ILD has a variable clinical course, and its prognosis is difficult to predict. Moreover, risk prediction models for prognosis remain undefined.

methodsThe prediction model was developed using retrospective data from 153 patients with RA-ILD and validated in an independent RA-ILD cohort (n = 149). Candidate variables for the prediction models were screened using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. C-statistics were calculated to assess and compare the predictive ability of each model.

resultsIn the derivation cohort, the median follow-up period was 54 months, and 38.6% of the subjects exhibited a UIP pattern on HRCT imaging. In multivariate Cox analysis, old age (≥60 years, HR: 2.063), high fibrosis score (≥20% of the total lung extent, HR: 4.585), a UIP pattern (HR: 1.899) and emphysema (HR: 2.596) on HRCT were significantly poor prognostic factors and included in the final model. The prediction model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of 5-year mortality (C-index: 0.780, P < 0.001); furthermore, patients at risk were divided into three groups with 1-year mortality rates of 0%, 5.1% and 24.1%, respectively. Predicted and observed mortalities at 1, 2 and 3 years were similar in the derivation cohort, and the prediction model was also effective in predicting prognosis of the validation cohort (C-index: 0.638, P < 0.001).

conclusionOur results suggest that a risk prediction model based on HRCT variables could be useful for patients with RA-ILD.

Indexed as

Arthritis, RheumatoidLung Diseases, InterstitialRisk AssessmentCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisProportional Hazards ModelsRetrospective StudiesRisk Factorsdiagnosticimaginginterstitial lung diseaseprognosisrheumatoid arthritis

Identifiers

PMID32441061
PMCPMC7615175

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.