Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32439879›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

Multi-classifier prediction of knee osteoarthritis progression from incomplete imbalanced longitudinal data.

Paweł Widera, Paco M J Welsing, Christoph Ladel, John Loughlin, Floris P F J Lafeber, Florence Petit Dop, Jonathan Larkin, Harrie Weinans, Ali Mobasheri, Jaume Bacardit

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Paweł WideraSchool of Computing Science, Newcastle University, 1 Science Square, Newcastle, NE4 5TG, UK.
Paco M J WelsingDepartment of Rheumatology & Clinical Immunology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Christoph LadelMerck, Frankfurter Str. 250, 64293, Darmstadt, Germany.
John LoughlinBiosciences Institute, Newcastle University, International Centre for Life, Newcastle, NE1 3BZ, UK.
Floris P F J LafeberDepartment of Rheumatology & Clinical Immunology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Florence Petit DopImmuno-inflammation Center of Therapeutic Innovation, Institut de Recherches Internationales Servier, Suresnes, France.
Jonathan LarkinNovel Human Genetics Research Unit, GlaxoSmithKline, Collegeville, PA, 19426, USA.
Harrie WeinansDepartment of Orthopedics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Ali MobasheriDepartment of Regenerative Medicine, State Research Institute Centre for Innovative Medicine, Santariskiu 5, 08661, Vilnius, Lithuania.
Jaume BacarditSchool of Computing Science, Newcastle University, 1 Science Square, Newcastle, NE4 5TG, UK. jaume.bacardit@newcastle.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Conventional inclusion criteria used in osteoarthritis clinical trials are not very effective in selecting patients who would benefit from a therapy being tested. Typically majority of selected patients show no or limited disease progression during a trial period. As a consequence, the effect of the tested treatment cannot be observed, and the efforts and resources invested in running the trial are not rewarded. This could be avoided, if selection criteria were more predictive of the future disease progression. In this article, we formulated the patient selection problem as a multi-class classification task, with classes based on clinically relevant measures of progression (over a time scale typical for clinical trials). Using data from two long-term knee osteoarthritis studies OAI and CHECK, we tested multiple algorithms and learning process configurations (including multi-classifier approaches, cost-sensitive learning, and feature selection), to identify the best performing machine learning models. We examined the behaviour of the best models, with respect to prediction errors and the impact of used features, to confirm their clinical relevance. We found that the model-based selection outperforms the conventional inclusion criteria, reducing by 20-25% the number of patients who show no progression. This result might lead to more efficient clinical trials.

Indexed as

Disease ProgressionMachine LearningPatient SelectionBone and BonesCartilageHumansModels, TheoreticalOsteoarthritis, Knee

Identifiers

PMID32439879
PMCPMC7242357

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.