Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32435498›Full record

ArticleBiomarker research2020

Trends and projections of kidney cancer incidence at the global and national levels, 1990-2030: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

Zhebin Du, Wei Chen, Qier Xia, Oumin Shi, Qi Chen

Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Biomarker research, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07233668 (Immediate Versus Deferred Cytoreductive Nephrectomy With Ipilimumab/Nivolumab in Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma), which is not on this map. Cited by 151 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
151citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
19.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07233668 nanot yet recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Immediate Versus Deferred Cytoreductive Nephrectomy With Ipilimumab/Nivolumab in Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Multicenter, Randomized, Open-Label, Phase III Trial

TypeinterventionalSponsorSeoul National University HospitalRan2025 to 2029Enrolled172ConditionsMetastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma ( mRCC)ArmsIpilimumab plus Nivolumab, Cytoreductive Nephrectomy
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

151 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 229 citations in OpenAlex.

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  13. Epidemiology of brain and central nervous system cancers in children and adolescents.Child's nervous system : ChNS : official journal of the International Society for Pediatric Neurosurgery · 2026
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91 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Zhebin Du *1Department of Urology, Renji Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200127 China.
Wei Chen *1Department of Urology, Renji Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200127 China.
Qier Xia *2Department of Urology, Pudong New Area People's Hospital, Shanghai, China.
Oumin Shi3Health Science Center, Shenzhen Second People's Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518020 China.
Qi Chen1Department of Urology, Renji Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200127 China.
Renji Hospital · CNPudong New Area People's Hospital · CNShenzhen Second People's Hospital · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIdentifying the temporal trends of kidney cancer (KC) incidence in both the past and the future at the global and national levels is critical for KC prevention.

methodsWe retrieved annual KC case data between 1990 and 2017 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify the temporal trends of KC age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2017. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict KC incidence through 2030.

resultsWorldwide, the number of newly diagnosed KC cases increased from 207.3 thousand in 1990 to 393.0 thousand in 2017. The KC ASR increased from 4.72 per 100,000 to 4.94 per 100,000 during the same period. Between 2018 and 2030, the number of KC cases is projected to increase further to 475.4 thousand (95% highest density interval [HDI] 423.9, 526.9). The KC ASR is predicted to decrease slightly to 4.46 per 100,000 (95% HDI 4.06, 4.86). A total of 90, 2, and 80 countries or territories are projected to experience increases, remain stable, and experience decreases in KC ASR between 2018 and 2030, respectively. In most developed countries, the KC incidence is forecasted to decrease irrespective of past trends. In most developing countries, the KC incidence is predicted to increase persistently through 2030.

conclusionsKC incidence is predicted to decrease in the next decade, and this predicted decrease is mainly driven by the decreases in developed countries. More attention should be placed on developing countries.

Indexed as

IncidenceKidney cancerModeling studyPredictionTemporal trends

Identifiers

PMID32435498
PMCPMC7222434
OpenAlexW3026176823

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.