ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2020
Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries.
Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 122 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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Who cites it
122 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Do COVID-19 Infectious Disease Models Incorporate the Social Determinants of Health? A Systematic Review.Public health reviews · 2024Pooled it
- The association of intensity and duration of non-pharmacological interventions and implementation of vaccination with COVID-19 infection, death, and excess mortality: Natural experiment in 22 European countries.Journal of infection and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Prolonged symptom onset to admission time is associated with severe Coronavirus disease: A meta combined propensity-adjusted analysis.Journal of medical virology · 2021Pooled it
- Managing cancer patients during the COVID-19 pandemic: an ESMO multidisciplinary expert consensus.Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology · 2020Guideline
- Comparative analysis of heart disease prediction using logistic regression, SVM, KNN, and random forest with cross-validation for improved accuracy.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Testing policies during an epidemic: An economic analysis.PloS one · 2025Article
- A unified framework for diagnostic test development and evaluation during outbreaks of emerging infections.Communications medicine · 2024Review
- Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Theoretical Epidemiology Needs Urgent Attention in China.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- The Inverted U-Shaped Relationship Between Socio-Economic Status and Infections During the COVID-19 Pandemic.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- Application of green synthesized magnesium oxide nanoparticles to prolong commercial availability ofFood chemistry: X · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Impact of Covid -19 incidence rate and government-initiated risk communication measures on individual's NPI practices.PloS one · 2024Article
- The influence of COVID-19 risk perception and vaccination status on the number of social contacts across Europe: insights from the CoMix study.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on social work field education: Perspectives of Canadian social work students.Journal of social work (London, England) · 2023Article
- Role of vaccine in fighting the variants of COVID-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2023Article
- A Strategy Formulation Framework for Efficient Screening during the Early Stage of a Pandemic.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Article
62 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
Abstract
To date, non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) have been the mainstay for controlling the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While NPIs are effective in preventing health systems overload, these long-term measures are likely to have significant adverse economic consequences. Therefore, many countries are currently considering to lift the NPIs-increasing the likelihood of disease resurgence. In this regard, dynamic NPIs, with intervals of relaxed social distancing, may provide a more suitable alternative. However, the ideal frequency and duration of intermittent NPIs, and the ideal "break" when interventions can be temporarily relaxed, remain uncertain, especially in resource-poor settings. We employed a multivariate prediction model, based on up-to-date transmission and clinical parameters, to simulate outbreak trajectories in 16 countries, from diverse regions and economic categories. In each country, we then modelled the impacts on intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths over an 18-month period for following scenarios: (1) no intervention, (2) consecutive cycles of mitigation measures followed by a relaxation period, and (3) consecutive cycles of suppression measures followed by a relaxation period. We defined these dynamic interventions based on reduction of the mean reproduction number during each cycle, assuming a basic reproduction number (R
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