ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Sensitivity analysis and global stability of epidemic between Thais and tourists for Covid -19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Analysis and prediction of improved SEIR transmission dynamics model: taking the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy as an example.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Article
- Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.PloS one · 2023Article
- A data-driven hybrid ensemble AI model for COVID-19 infection forecast using multiple neural networks and reinforced learning.Computers in biology and medicine · 2022Article
- Quarantine, physical distancing and social isolation measures in individuals potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in community settings and health services: a scoping review.Nepal journal of epidemiology · 2022Article
- Adaptive Multi-Factor Quantitative Analysis and Prediction Models: Vaccination, Virus Mutation and Social Isolation on COVID-19.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
- Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- Forecasting the Long-Term Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemic Using the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
- Modeling of the Long-Term Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in the United States.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 Epidemic on Hospital Admissions for Non-Communicable Diseases in a Large Italian University-Hospital: A Descriptive Case-Series Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
- Modeling the effect of lockdown timing as a COVID-19 control measure in countries with differing social contacts.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A review on COVID-19 forecasting models.Neural computing & applications · 2021Review
- The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Tuscany (Italy): A SI2R2D compartmental model with uncertainty evaluation.PloS one · 2021Article
- Assessing correlations between short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants and COVID-19 spread in all Italian territorial areas.Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987) · 2021Article
- The impact of government measures and human mobility trend on COVID-19 related deaths in the UK.Transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives · 2020Article
- Epidemic Spread and Its Management Through Governance and Leadership Response Influencing the Arising Challenges Around COVID-19 in Pakistan-A Lesson Learnt for Low Income Countries With Limited Resource.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of 17 April 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world's centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.