ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020
A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- Risk Assessment of Emergency Medical Resource Exhaustion Under Major Infectious Disease Outbreaks: Based on Discrete-Event Simulation Models.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2026Article
- Dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation and quarantine: A probability-based deterministic model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Utility of compartmental models to test the competing hypotheses of pathogen evolution and human intervention.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Open-sourced modeling and simulating tools for decision-makers during an emerging pandemic or epidemic - Systematic evaluation of utility and usability: A scoping review update.Dialogues in health · 2024Article
- A vaccination-based COVID-19 model: Analysis and prediction using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.Heliyon · 2024Article
- A simulation model for predicting hospital occupancy for Covid-19 using archetype analysis.Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) · 2023Article
- Preparing Cities for Future Pandemics: Unraveling the Influence of Urban and Housing Variables on COVID-19 Incidence in Santiago de Chile.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- A multistate model and its standalone tool to predict hospital and ICU occupancy by patients with COVID-19.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Analytical solution of l-i SEIR model-Comparison of l-i SEIR model with conventional SEIR model in simulation of epidemic curves.PloS one · 2023Article
- Allocation of emergency medical resources for epidemic diseases considering the heterogeneity of epidemic areas.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Highway traffic flow prediction model with multi-component spatial-temporal graph convolution networks.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Using network data envelopment analysis to assess the sustainability and resilience of healthcare supply chains in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.Annals of operations research · 2022Article
- Effect of Nucleic Acid Screening Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Cities of Different Scales and Assessment of Related Testing Resource Demands-Evidence from China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- A community-level study on COVID-19 transmission and policy interventions in Wuhan, China.Cities (London, England) · 2022Article
- A Comprehensive Review of the Technological Solutions to Analyse the Effects of Pandemic Outbreak on Human Lives.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2022Review
- Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2021Article
- Seesaw scenarios of lockdown for COVID-19 pandemic: Simulation and failure analysis.Sustainable cities and society · 2021Article
- An agent-based model for supply chain recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.Computers & industrial engineering · 2021Article
- Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A Scenario-Based Evaluation of COVID-19-Related Essential Clinical Resource Demands in China.Engineering (Beijing, China) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesPublic health officials need tools to assist in anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We constructed a modeling tool to aid active public health officials to estimate healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impact of population-wide social-distancing interventions.
methodsThe tool uses an SEIR compartmental model to project the pandemic's local spread. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile.
resultsOur scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at six to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals >70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity.
conclusionsAggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available.
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