Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32415145›Full record

ArticleNature communications2020

Representation of probabilistic outcomes during risky decision-making.

Giuseppe Castegnetti, Athina Tzovara, Saurabh Khemka, Filip Melinščak, Gareth R Barnes, Raymond J Dolan, Dominik R Bach

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Giuseppe CastegnettiComputational Psychiatry Research, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Psychosomatics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. g.castegnetti@gmail.com.
Athina TzovaraComputational Psychiatry Research, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Psychosomatics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7588-1418
Saurabh KhemkaComputational Psychiatry Research, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Psychosomatics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Filip MelinščakComputational Psychiatry Research, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Psychosomatics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Gareth R BarnesWellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5396-7712
Raymond J DolanWellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9356-761X
Dominik R BachComputational Psychiatry Research, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Psychosomatics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3717-2036

Funding

Department of HealthWellcome TrustWellcome Trust 091593/Z/10/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Goal-directed behaviour requires prospectively retrieving and evaluating multiple possible action outcomes. While a plethora of studies suggested sequential retrieval for deterministic choice outcomes, it remains unclear whether this is also the case when integrating multiple probabilistic outcomes of the same action. We address this question by capitalising on magnetoencephalography (MEG) in humans who made choices in a risky foraging task. We train classifiers to distinguish MEG field patterns during presentation of two probabilistic outcomes (reward, loss), and then apply these to decode such patterns during deliberation. First, decoded outcome representations have a temporal structure, suggesting alternating retrieval of the outcomes. Moreover, the probability that one or the other outcome is being represented depends on loss magnitude, but not on loss probability, and it predicts the chosen action. In summary, we demonstrate decodable outcome representations during probabilistic decision-making, which are sequentially structured, depend on task features, and predict subsequent action.

Indexed as

Decision MakingRewardRisk-TakingAdultAlgorithmsFalse Positive ReactionsFemaleHumansMagnetoencephalographyMaleMultivariate AnalysisProbabilitySignal Processing, Computer-AssistedVideo GamesYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID32415145
PMCPMC7229012

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.