ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2020
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil.
Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 51 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
51 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 162 citations in OpenAlex.
- How do we share data in COVID-19 research? A systematic review of COVID-19 datasets in PubMed Central Articles.Briefings in bioinformatics · 2021Pooled it
- Inequities in COVID-19 morbidity in Brazil: the influence of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and preexisting health conditions.Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Bridging the gap between models based on ordinary, delayed, and fractional differentials equations through integral kernels.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Bayesian model selection for COVID-19 pandemic state estimation using extended Kalman filters: Case study for Saudi Arabia.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Article
- The dynamics of novel corona virus disease via stochastic epidemiological model with vaccination.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.Computation (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Syndromic Surveillance Using Structured Telehealth Data: Case Study of the First Wave of COVID-19 in Brazil.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Ethnic/Racial Disparity in Mortality from COVID-19: Data for the Year 2020 in Brazil.Spatial demography · 2023Article
- COVID-19 mortality in Brazil, 2020-21: consequences of the pandemic inadequate management.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2022Article
- Article
- Mathematical modeling to study the impact of immigration on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study for Venezuela.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2022Article
- Correlated stochastic epidemic model for the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with vaccination.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling of the impact of Omicron variant on the COVID-19 situation in South Korea.Genomics & informatics · 2022Article
- Lethal ageism in the shadow of pandemic response tactics.International nursing review · 2022Article
- Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of computational science · 2022Article
- Characterisation of Omicron Variant during COVID-19 Pandemic and the Impact of Vaccination, Transmission Rate, Mortality, and Reinfection in South Africa, Germany, and Brazil.Biotech (Basel (Switzerland)) · 2022Article
- Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh.Biosafety and health · 2022Article
- Editorial: Epidemiological considerations in COVID-19 forecasting.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
By April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different countries. In the absence of vaccines or effective treatments, mitigation policies, such as social isolation and lock-down of cities, have been adopted, but the results vary among different countries. Some countries were able to control the disease at the moment, as is the case of South Korea. Others, like Italy, are now experiencing the peak of the pandemic. Finally, countries with emerging economies and social issues, like Brazil, are in the initial phase of the pandemic. In this work, we use mathematical models with time-dependent coefficients, techniques of inverse and forward uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis to characterize essential aspects of the COVID-19 in the three countries mentioned above. The model parameters estimated for South Korea revealed effective social distancing and isolation policies, border control, and a high number in the percentage of reported cases. In contrast, underreporting of cases was estimated to be very high in Brazil and Italy. In addition, the model estimated a poor isolation policy at the moment in Brazil, with a reduction of contact around 40%, whereas Italy and South Korea estimated numbers for contact reduction are at 75% and 90%, respectively. This characterization of the COVID-19, in these different countries under different scenarios and phases of the pandemic, supports the importance of mitigation policies, such as social distancing. In addition, it raises serious concerns for socially and economically fragile countries, where underreporting poses additional challenges to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by significantly increasing the uncertainties regarding its dynamics.
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