ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2021
Case Fatality Risk of the First Pandemic Wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Meteorological conditions are heterogeneous factors for COVID-19 risk in China.Environmental research · 2021Pooled it
- VIBES: A multiscale modeling approach integrating within-host and between-hosts dynamics in epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- The importance of playing the long game when it comes to pandemic surveillance.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Estimation and prediction of the multiply exponentially decaying daily case fatality rate of COVID-19.The Journal of supercomputing · 2023Article
- What is the role of aerosol transmission in SARS-Cov-2 Omicron spread in Shanghai?BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China.Nature medicine · 2022Article
- Incubation period, clinical and lung CT features for early prediction of COVID-19 deterioration: development and internal verification of a risk model.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2022Article
- Hereditary colorectal cancer syndromes and the COVID-19 pandemic: results from a survey conducted in patients enrolled in a dedicated registry.Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2022Article
- Healthcare Disparities and Outcomes of Cancer Patients in a Community Setting from a COVID-19 Epicenter.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2022Article
- Meta-analysis and adjusted estimation of COVID-19 case fatality risk in India and its association with the underlying comorbidities.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Article
- The impact of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation interventions to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic: A modeling study.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Risk of self-contamination among healthcare workers in the COVID-19 pandemic.The American journal of emergency medicine · 2021Article
- Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021.Nature human behaviour · 2021Article
- Estimating age-specific COVID-19 fatality risk and time to death by comparing population diagnosis and death patterns: Australian data.BMC medical research methodology · 2021Article
- Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Health science reports · 2021Article
- Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 during the first five months in the Western Pacific Region.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Article
- The differential demographic pattern of coronavirus disease 2019 fatality outside Hubei and from six hospitals in Hubei, China: a descriptive analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Significantly Lower Case-fatality Ratio of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong-A Territory-Wide Cohort Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Antibody seroprevalence in the epicenter Wuhan, Hubei, and six selected provinces after containment of the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in China.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2021Article
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Abstract
backgroundTo assess the case fatality risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in mainland China, stratified by region and clinical category, and estimate key time-to-event intervals.
methodsWe collected individual information and aggregated data on COVID-19 cases from publicly available official sources from 29 December 2019 to 17 April 2020. We accounted for right-censoring to estimate the CFR and explored the risk factors for mortality. We fitted Weibull, gamma, and log-normal distributions to time-to-event data using maximum-likelihood estimation.
resultsWe analyzed 82 719 laboratory-confirmed cases reported in mainland China, including 4632 deaths and 77 029 discharges. The estimated CFR was 5.65% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.50-5.81%) nationally, with the highest estimate in Wuhan (7.71%) and lowest in provinces outside Hubei (0.86%). The fatality risk among critical patients was 3.6 times that of all patients and 0.8-10.3-fold higher than that of mild-to-severe patients. Older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.14 per year; 95% CI, 1.11-1.16) and being male (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.10-3.04) were risk factors for mortality. The times from symptom onset to first healthcare consultation, to laboratory confirmation, and to hospitalization were consistently longer for deceased patients than for those who recovered.
conclusionsOur CFR estimates based on laboratory-confirmed cases ascertained in mainland China suggest that COVID-19 is more severe than the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in hospitalized patients, particularly in Wuhan. Our study provides a comprehensive picture of the severity of the first wave of the pandemic in China. Our estimates can help inform models and the global response to COVID-19.
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