A prognostic nomogram for event-free survival in patients with atrial fibrillation before cardiac resynchronization therapy.

backgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF), one of the most common comorbidities of heart failure (HF), is associated with worse long-term prognosis in HF patients receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, there is still no convenient tool to identify CRT candidates with AF who are at high risk of mortality and hospitalization due to HF.

methodsWe included 152 consecutive patients with AF for CRT in our hospital from January 2009 to July 2019. Multiple imputation was used for missing values. With imputed datasets, a multivariate Cox regression model was performed for variable selection using the backward stepwise method to predict all-cause mortality and HF readmissions. A nomogram and nomogram-based scoring system were constructed from the selected predictors. Then, internal validation and calibration were achieved by the bootstrap method, deriving the corrected concordance index and calibration curves. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to validate our selected predictors.

resultsFive predictors were incorporated in the nomogram, including N-terminal pro brain natriuretic protein (NT-proBNP) > 1745 pg/mL, history of syncope, previous pulmonary hypertension, moderate or severe tricuspid regurgitation, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) > 4 mIU/L. The concordance index (0.70, 95% CI 0.62-0.77), corrected concordance index (0.67, 95% CI 0.59-0.74) and calibration curve showed optimal discrimination and calibration of the established nomogram. A significant difference in overall event-free survival was recognized by the nomogram-derived scores for patients with high risk (> 50 points), intermediate risk (21-50 points) and low risk (0-20 points) before CRT.

conclusionOur internally validated nomogram may be an applicable tool for the early risk stratification of CRT candidates with AF.