ArticleAnnals of translational medicine2020
Imitation dynamics in the mitigation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China from 2019 to 2020.
Article in Annals of translational medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Modelling the impact of behavioural interventions during pandemics: A systematic review.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the dynamic COVID-zero strategy on HIV incidence and mortality in China.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Early Detection and Control of the Next Epidemic Wave Using Health Communications: Development of an Artificial Intelligence-Based Tool and Its Validation on COVID-19 Data from the US.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The Trade-Off between Airborne Pandemic Control and Energy Consumption Using Air Ventilation Solutions.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- The non-pharmaceutical interventions may affect the advantage in transmission of mutated variants during epidemics: A conceptual model for COVID-19.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- To isolate or not to isolate: the impact of changing behavior on COVID-19 transmission.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Shrinkage in serial intervals across transmission generations of COVID-19.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- Linking the disease transmission to information dissemination dynamics: An insight from a multi-scale model study.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- Prioritising COVID-19 vaccination in changing social and epidemiological landscapes: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Health science reports · 2021Article
- An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- The Signature Features of COVID-19 Pandemic in a Hybrid Mathematical Model-Implications for Optimal Work-School Lockdown Policy.Advanced theory and simulations · 2021Article
- Attach importance of the bootstrapEpidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Inferring the Association between the Risk of COVID-19 Case Fatality and N501Y Substitution in SARS-CoV-2.Viruses · 2021Article
- The co-circulating transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Eta variants in Nigeria: A retrospective modeling study of COVID-19.Journal of global health · 2021Article
- Estimating the Instantaneous Asymptomatic Proportion With a Simple Approach: Exemplified With the Publicly Available COVID-19 Surveillance Data in Hong Kong.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- The Quixotic Task of Forecasting Peaks of COVID-19: Rather Focus on Forward and Backward Projections.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
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7 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China on December 2019 in patients presenting with atypical pneumonia. Although 'city-lockdown' policy reduced the spatial spreading of the COVID-19, the city-level outbreaks within each city remain a major concern to be addressed. The local or regional level disease control mainly depends on individuals self-administered infection prevention actions. The contradiction between choice of taking infection prevention actions or not makes the elimination difficult under a voluntary acting scheme, and represents a clash between the optimal choice of action for the individual interest and group interests.
methodsWe develop a compartmental epidemic model based on the classic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model and use this to fit the data. Behavioral imitation through a game theoretical decision-making process is incorporated to study and project the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. By varying the key model parameters, we explore the probable course of the outbreak in terms of size and timing under several public interventions in improving public awareness and sensitivity to the infection risk as well as their potential impact.
resultsWe estimate the basic reproduction number,
conclusionsThrough an imitating social learning process, individual-level behavioral change on taking infection prevention actions have the potentials to significantly reduce the COVID-19 outbreak in terms of size and timing at city-level. Timely and substantially resources and supports for improving the willingness-to-act and conducts of self-administered infection prevention actions are recommended to reduce to the COVID-19 associated risks.
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