ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2020
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundA relatively simple life history allows us to derive an expression for the extinction probability of populations of tsetse, vectors of African sleeping sickness. We present the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability, to offer key insights into factors affecting the control or eradication of tsetse populations.
methodsWe represent tsetse population growth as a branching process, and derive closed form estimates of population extinction from that model. Statistical and mathematical techniques are used to analyse the uncertainties in estimating extinction probability, and the sensitivity of the extinction probability to changes in input parameters representing the natural life history and vital dynamics of tsetse populations.
resultsFor fixed values of input parameters, the sensitivity of extinction probability depends on the baseline parameter values. Extinction probability is most sensitive to the probability that a female is inseminated by a fertile male when daily pupal mortality is low, whereas the extinction probability is most sensitive to daily mortality rate for adult females when daily pupal mortality, and extinction probabilities, are high. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis show that daily mortality rate for adult females has the highest impact on the extinction probability.
conclusionsThe high correlation between extinction probability and daily female adult mortality gives a strong argument that control techniques which increase daily female adult mortality may be the single most effective means of ensuring eradication of tsetse population.
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