Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32390617›Full record

ArticleJournal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD2020

Quantifying and Describing the Natural History and Costs of Alzheimer's Disease and Effects of Hypothetical Interventions.

Anders Wimo, Ron Handels, Bengt Winblad, Christopher M Black, Gunilla Johansson, Stina Salomonsson, Maria Eriksdotter, Rezaul K Khandker

Erratum issuedAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Anders WimoDepartment of Neurobiology, Karolinska Institutet, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Neurogeriatrics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ron HandelsDepartment of Neurobiology, Karolinska Institutet, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Neurogeriatrics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Bengt WinbladDepartment of Neurobiology, Karolinska Institutet, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Neurogeriatrics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Christopher M BlackMerck & Co., Inc., Center for Observational and Real World Evidence (CORE), Kenilworth, NJ, USA.
Gunilla JohanssonDepartment of Neurobiology, Karolinska Institutet, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Neurogeriatrics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Stina SalomonssonMerck Sharp and Dohme, Center for Observational and Real World Evidence (CORE), Stockholm, Sweden.
Maria EriksdotterDepartment of Neurobiology, Karolinska Institutet, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Clinical Geriatrics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Rezaul K KhandkerMerck & Co., Inc., Center for Observational and Real World Evidence (CORE), Kenilworth, NJ, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundA long-term horizon is necessary when the socioeconomic consequences and the potential effects of interventions in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are estimated.

objectivesTo illustrate the potential societal costs of AD across the disease continuum and to illustrate the potential cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical intervention with disease modifying treatment (DMT).

methodsBased on the Swedish dementia registry, a Markov model was used to simulate a virtual cohort of 100,000 people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD (AD-MCI) in Sweden for 40 years starting at the age of 60. A simulated hypothetical intervention assumed a 25% reduction in progression rate during AD-MCI and mild AD-dementia. A comprehensive set of sensitivity analyses was included.

resultsThe cumulative risk to develop dementia was 96%. The mean simulated survival was 19.0 years. The net present value for a person year with dementia was 252,843 SEK (about 29,500 US$). The cost effectiveness model illustrated how the hypothetical scenario of a 25% reduction in progression to AD-dementia would require 41 AD-MCI patients to be treated to prevent one case of AD-dementia (2,447 avoided AD-dementia cases of 100,000 with AD-MCI). Most scenarios illustrated hypothetical cost effectiveness (based on a willingness to pay level of 600,000 SEK (70,000 US$) per gained QALY), but not cost savings. DISCUSSION: Lifetime societal costs of AD are substantial. A future DMT may be potentially cost-effective given assumed treatment effects and costs, but cost savings are unlikely.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseCost-Benefit AnalysisDisease ProgressionHealth Care CostsHumansMarkov ChainsRegistriesAlzheimer’s diseasecost analysiscost effectivenesscostsdementiadisease-modifying treatmenteconomics

Identifiers

PMID32390617
PMCPMC7369101

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.