ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2020
Applying the moving epidemic method to determine influenza epidemic and intensity thresholds using influenza-like illness surveillance data 2009-2018 in Tunisia.
Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance to identify the Start of Influenza Seasons in New South Wales, Australia.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Circulation of Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses in Tunisia, 2022-2023 Season.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Global region-specific influenza early warning by establishing an epidemic intensity threshold system: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Unraveling regional variability in Dengue outbreaks in Brazil: leveraging the Moving Epidemics Method (MEM) and climate data to optimize vector control strategies.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- How to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics? Application of the Moving Epidemic Method in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France from 2017 to 2023.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Identify future epidemic threshold and intensity for influenza-like illness in Iraq by using the moving epidemic method.IJID regions · 2024Article
- Strengthening influenza surveillance capacity in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Nearly two decades of direct support from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
- Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Applying the moving epidemic method to determine influenza epidemic and intensity thresholds using influenza-like illness surveillance data 2009-2018 in Tunisia.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2020Article
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16 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundDefining the start and assessing the intensity of influenza seasons are essential to ensure timely preventive and control measures and to contribute to the pandemic preparedness. The present study aimed to determine the epidemic and intensity thresholds of influenza season in Tunisia using the moving epidemic method.
methodsWe applied the moving epidemic method (MEM) using the R Language implementation (package "mem"). We have calculated the epidemic and the different intensity thresholds from historical data of the past nine influenza seasons (2009-2010 to 2017-2018) and assessed the impact of the 2009-2010 pandemic year. Data used were the weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) proportions compared with all outpatient acute consultations. The goodness of the model was assessed using a cross validation procedure.
resultsThe average duration of influenza epidemic during a typical season was 20 weeks and ranged from 11 weeks (2009-2010 season) to 23 weeks (2015-2016 season). The epidemic threshold with the exclusion of the pandemic season was 6.25%. It had a very high sensitivity of 85% and a high specificity of 69%. The different levels of intensity were established as follows: low, if ILI proportion is below 9.74%, medium below 12.05%; high below 13.27%; and very high above this last rate.
conclusionsThis is the first mathematically based study of seasonal threshold of influenza in Tunisia. As in other studies in different countries, the model has shown both good specificity and sensitivity, which allows timely and accurate detection of the start of influenza seasons. The findings will contribute to the development of more efficient measures for influenza prevention and control.
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