ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Dynamics in a simple evolutionary-epidemiological model for the evolution of an initial asymptomatic infection stage.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemic evolutionarily stable strategies within an age-structured host population.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- The evolution of post-infection mortality.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Diagnostic testing and the evolution of detection avoidance by pathogens.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2024Article
- The evolution of parasite virulence under targeted culling and harvesting in wildlife and livestock.Evolutionary applications · 2023Article
- An immuno-epidemiological model for transient immune protection: A case study for viral respiratory infections.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: Application to COVID-19 in the US.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Social dilemmas of sociality due to beneficial and costly contagion.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Assessing the Transmissibility of the New SARS-CoV-2 Variants: From Delta to Omicron.Vaccines · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 virulence evolution: Avirulence theory, immunity and trade-offs.Journal of evolutionary biology · 2021Review
- The stagnation paradox: the ever-improving but (more or less) stationary population fitness.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Review
- The three Ts of virulence evolution during zoonotic emergence.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Review
- Evolution of an asymptomatic first stage of infection in a heterogeneous population.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Modeling of COVID-19 propagation with compartment models.Mathematische Semesterberichte · 2021Article
- Superinfection and the evolution of an initial asymptomatic stage.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Modelling a pandemic with asymptomatic patients, impact of lockdown and herd immunity, with applications to SARS-CoV-2.Annual reviews in control · 2020Review
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Pathogens exhibit a rich variety of life history strategies, shaped by natural selection. An important pathogen life history characteristic is the propensity to induce an asymptomatic yet productive (transmissive) stage at the beginning of an infection. This characteristic is subject to complex trade-offs, ranging from immunological considerations to population-level social processes. We aim to classify the evolutionary dynamics of such asymptomatic behavior of pathogens (hereafter "latency") in order to unify epidemiology and evolution for this life history strategy. We focus on a simple epidemiological model with two infectious stages, where hosts in the first stage can be partially or fully asymptomatic. Immunologically, there is a trade-off between transmission and progression in this first stage. For arbitrary trade-offs, we derive different conditions that guarantee either at least one evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) at zero, some, or maximal latency of the first stage or, perhaps surprisingly, at least one unstable evolutionarily singular strategy. In this latter case, there is bistability between zero and nonzero (possibly maximal) latency. We then prove the uniqueness of interior evolutionarily singular strategies for power-law and exponential trade-offs: Thus, bistability is always between zero and maximal latency. Overall, previous multistage infection models can be summarized with a single model that includes evolutionary processes acting on latency. Since small changes in parameter values can lead to abrupt transitions in evolutionary dynamics, appropriate disease control strategies could have a substantial impact on the evolution of first-stage latency.
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