ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2020
Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Yellow Fever Outbreaks and Reactive Vaccination in Africa, 2010-2025: A Scoping Review and Analysis.Research square · 2026Article
- Review
- Mapping climate change-driven epidemics.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Yellow fever vaccine coverage and associated factors among under-five children in Kenya: Data from Kenyan Demographic and Health Survey 2022.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Yellow fever in Ghana: Predicting emergence and ecology from historical outbreaks.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Yellow fever in Ghana: Predicting emergence and ecology from historical outbreaks.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Environmental determinants predicting population vulnerability to high yellow fever incidence.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions.Science advances · 2021Article
- The global burden of yellow fever.eLife · 2021Article
- Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study.PLoS medicine · 2021Article
- Article
- Quantifying model evidence for yellow fever transmission routes in Africa.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTo counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of urban YF transmission such as indirect benefits of vaccination, is key to informing this strategy. METHODS AND
findingsWe developed two model variants to estimate YF burden in sub-Saharan Africa, assuming all infections stem from either the sylvatic or the urban cycle of the disease. Both relied on an ecological niche model fitted to the local presence of any YF reported event in 34 African countries. We calibrated under-reporting using independent estimates of transmission intensity provided by 12 serological surveys performed in 11 countries. We calculated local numbers of YF infections, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost based on estimated transmission intensity while accounting for time-varying vaccination coverage. We estimated vaccine demand and impact of future preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs) according to various vaccination scenarios. Vaccination activities conducted in Africa between 2005 and 2017 were estimated to prevent from 3.3 (95% CI 1.2-7.7) to 6.1 (95% CI 2.4-13.2) millions of deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, representing extreme scenarios of none or maximal herd effects, respectively. By prioritizing provinces based on the risk of urban YF transmission in future PMVCs, an average of 37.7 million annual doses for PMVCs over eight years would avert an estimated 9,900,000 (95% CI 7,000,000-13,400,000) infections and 480,000 (180,000-1,140,000) deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, corresponding to 1.7 (0.7-4.1) deaths averted per 1,000 vaccine doses.
conclusionsBy estimating YF burden and vaccine impact over a range of spatial and temporal scales, while accounting for the specificity of urban transmission, our model can be used to inform the current EYE strategy.
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