ArticleJournal of econometrics2021
Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: Anatomy of an inference problem.
Article in Journal of econometrics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04705766 (The KIDCOV Study), which is not on this map. Cited by 61 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
The KIDCOV Study: ASSESSMENT of SARS-CoV-2 Without HOSPITALIZATION as a RISK FACTOR for ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY
Who cites it
61 citing papers in PubMed.
- Scale reliant mixed effects models enhance microbiome data analysis.Microbiome · 2026Article
- Non-healthcare system interventions and COVID-19 daily cases: a multilevel time series analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Inferring effects of mutations on SARS-CoV-2 transmission from genomic surveillance data.Nature communications · 2025Article
- A comparative analysis of COVID-19 seroprevalence rates, observed infection rates, and infection-related mortality.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Contact Tracing Different Age Groups During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Retrospective Study From South-West Germany.Online journal of public health informatics · 2024Article
- Article
- Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Estimating population infection rates from non-random testing data: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic.PloS one · 2024Article
- Article
- Resilience as a measure of preparedness for pandemic influenza outbreaks.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2024Article
- Vaccination coverage against COVID-19 among rural population in Haryana, India: A cross-sectional study.PloS one · 2024Article
- Article
- Policy evaluation during a pandemic.Journal of econometrics · 2023Article
- Face mask is an efficient tool to fight the Covid-19 pandemic and some factors increase the probability of its adoption.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Article
- Epidemic responses under uncertainty.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- A hybrid compartmental model with a case study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel.Journal of mathematics in industry · 2023Article
- Time varying Markov process with partially observed aggregate data: An application to coronavirus.Journal of econometrics · 2023Article
- What cannot be cured must be endured: The long-lasting effect of a COVID-19 infection on workplace productivity.Labour economics · 2022Article
1 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of cumulative population infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness conditional on infection are higher than actual rates. Understanding the time path of the COVID-19 pandemic has been hampered by the absence of bounds on infection rates that are credible and informative. This paper explains the logical problem of bounding these rates and reports illustrative findings, using data from Illinois, New York, and Italy. We combine the data with assumptions on the infection rate in the untested population and on the accuracy of the tests that appear credible in the current context. We find that the infection rate might be substantially higher than reported. We also find that, assuming accurate reporting of deaths, the infection fatality rates in Illinois, New York, and Italy are substantially lower than reported.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.