ArticleScientific reports2020
Spatial early warning signals of social and epidemiological tipping points in a coupled behaviour-disease network.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Applicability of spatial early warning signals to complex network dynamics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Optimal sampling of spatial patterns improves deep learning-based early warning signals of critical transitions.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Factors associated with parental human papillomavirus vaccination intentions among adolescents from socioeconomically advantaged versus deprived households: a nationwide, cross-sectional survey.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Modeling the effect of observational social learning on parental decision-making for childhood vaccination and diseases spread over household networks.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2023Article
- Article
- Performance of early warning signals for disease re-emergence: A case study on COVID-19 data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Review
- Transient indicators of tipping points in infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The resurgence of infectious diseases due to vaccine refusal has highlighted the role of interactions between disease dynamics and the spread of vaccine opinion on social networks. Shifts between disease elimination and outbreak regimes often occur through tipping points. It is known that tipping points can be predicted by early warning signals (EWS) based on characteristic dynamics near the critical transition, but the study of EWS in coupled behaviour-disease networks has received little attention. Here, we test several EWS indicators measuring spatial coherence and autocorrelation for their ability to predict a critical transition corresponding to disease outbreaks and vaccine refusal in a multiplex network model. The model couples paediatric infectious disease spread through a contact network to binary opinion dynamics of vaccine opinion on a social network. Through change point detection, we find that mutual information and join count indicators provided the best EWS. We also show the paediatric infectious disease natural history generates a discrepancy between population-level vaccine opinions and vaccine immunity status, such that transitions in the social network may occur before epidemiological transitions. These results suggest that monitoring social media for EWS of paediatric infectious disease outbreaks using these spatial indicators could be successful.
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