Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32376845›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

Accuracy of ancestral state reconstruction for non-neutral traits.

Barbara R Holland, Saan Ketelaar-Jones, Aidan R O'Mara, Michael D Woodhams, Gregory J Jordan

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
12.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 92 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Resolving competing evolutionary histories in joint ancestral state reconstruction.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Barbara R HollandSchool of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tas, 7001, Australia. Barbara.Holland@utas.edu.au.
Saan Ketelaar-JonesSchool of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tas, 7001, Australia.
Aidan R O'MaraSchool of Health Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 121, Hobart, Tas, 7001, Australia.
Michael D WoodhamsSchool of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tas, 7001, Australia.
Gregory J JordanSchool of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tas, 7001, Australia.
University of Tasmania · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The assumptions underpinning ancestral state reconstruction are violated in many evolutionary systems, especially for traits under directional selection. However, the accuracy of ancestral state reconstruction for non-neutral traits is poorly understood. To investigate the accuracy of ancestral state reconstruction methods, trees and binary characters were simulated under the BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction) model using a wide range of character-state-dependent rates of speciation, extinction and character-state transition. We used maximum parsimony (MP), BiSSE and two-state Markov (Mk2) models to reconstruct ancestral states. Under each method, error rates increased with node depth, true number of state transitions, and rates of state transition and extinction; exceeding 30% for the deepest 10% of nodes and highest rates of extinction and character-state transition. Where rates of character-state transition were asymmetrical, error rates were greater when the rate away from the ancestral state was largest. Preferential extinction of species with the ancestral character state also led to higher error rates. BiSSE outperformed Mk2 in all scenarios where either speciation or extinction was state dependent and outperformed MP under most conditions. MP outperformed Mk2 in most scenarios except when the rates of character-state transition and/or extinction were highly asymmetrical and the ancestral state was unfavoured.

Identifiers

PMID32376845
PMCPMC7203120
OpenAlexW3021581748

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.