Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32376350›Full record

ArticleThe Annals of thoracic surgery2020

The Surge After the Surge: Cardiac Surgery Post-COVID-19.

Rawn Salenger, Eric W Etchill, Niv Ad, Thomas Matthew, Diane Alejo, Glenn Whitman, Jennifer S Lawton, Christine L Lau, Charles F Gammie, James S Gammie

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Annals of thoracic surgery, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
59citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

59 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  15. Post-acute health care burden after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a retrospective cohort study.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Rawn SalengerDivision of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland. Electronic address: rawnsalenger@umm.edu.
Eric W EtchillDivision of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
Niv AdDivision of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland; Adventist White Oak Medical Center, Silver Spring, Maryland.
Thomas MatthewDivision of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland; Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Suburban Hospital, Bethesda, Maryland.
Diane AlejoDivision of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
Glenn WhitmanDivision of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
Jennifer S LawtonDivision of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
Christine L LauDepartment of Surgery, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
Charles F GammieDepartment of Astronomy, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois; Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois.
James S GammieDivision of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically reduced adult cardiac surgery case volumes as institutions and surgeons curtail nonurgent operations. There will be a progressive increase in deferred cases during the pandemic that will require completion within a limited time frame once restrictions ease. We investigated the impact of various levels of increased postpandemic hospital operating capacity on the time to clear the backlog of deferred cases. Methods: We collected data from 4 cardiac surgery programs across 2 health systems. We recorded case rates at baseline and during the COVID-19 pandemic and created a mathematical model to quantify the cumulative surgical backlog based on the projected pandemic duration. We then used the model to predict the time required to clear the backlog depending on the level of increased operating capacity. Results: Cardiac surgery volumes fell to 54% of baseline after restrictions were implemented. Assuming a service restoration date of either June 1 or July 1, we calculated the need to perform 216% or 263% of monthly baseline volume, respectively, to clear the backlog in 1 month. The actual duration required to clear the backlog highly depends on hospital capacity in the post-COVID period, and ranges from 1 to 8 months, depending on when services are restored and the degree of increased capacity. Conclusions: Cardiac surgical operating capacity during the COVID-19 recovery period will have a dramatic impact on the time to clear the deferred cases backlog. Inadequate operating capacity may cause substantial delays and increase morbidity and mortality. If only prepandemic capacity is available, the backlog will never clear.

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusCardiac Surgical ProceduresCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Elective Surgical ProceduresHumansInfection ControlModels, StatisticalPandemicsPneumonia, ViralProcedures and Techniques UtilizationSARS-CoV-2Surge Capacity

Identifiers

PMID32376350
PMCPMC7196543

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.