ArticleScience bulletin2020
Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the "Diamond Princess".
Article in Science bulletin, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 69 citations in OpenAlex.
- Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Accounting for contact network uncertainty in epidemic inferences with Approximate Bayesian Computation.Applied network science · 2025Article
- Novel sampling strategy for regular nucleic acid testing in low risk areas during epidemics.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Dynamic Contact Networks in Confined Spaces: Synthesizing Micro-Level Encounter Patterns through Human Mobility Models from Real-World Data.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Modeling COVID-19 spread using multi-agent simulation with small-world network approach.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Evolutionary Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems driven by node features and the mutation of feature preferences.PloS one · 2024Article
- Towards Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems: Introducing heterogeneous node features and interaction rules.PloS one · 2024Article
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- Article
- Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Understanding Dynamics of Pandemic Models to Support Predictions of COVID-19 Transmission: Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of SIR-Type Models.IEEE journal of biomedical and health informatics · 2022Article
- The effects of different travel modes and travel destinations on COVID-19 transmission in global cities.Science bulletin · 2022Article
- Predicting the spatio-temporal infection risk in indoor spaces using an efficient airborne transmission model.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Sensitivity of non-conditional climatic variables to climate-change deep uncertainty using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- A Network Dynamics Model for the Transmission of COVID-19 in Diamond Princess and a Response to Reopen Large-Scale Public Facilities.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Complex Contact Network of Patients at the Beginning of an Epidemic Outbreak: An Analysis Based on 1218 COVID-19 Cases in China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Article
- A stochastic contact network model for assessing outbreak risk of COVID-19 in workplaces.PloS one · 2022Article
- Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Urban Embedded Social Networks.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.