Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32371508›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2020

Prevalence of secondary care multimorbidity in mid-life and its association with premature mortality in a large longitudinal cohort study.

Marjorie C Johnston, Corrinda Black, Stewart W Mercer, Gordon J Prescott, Michael A Crilly

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.5field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Experiences of Social Relationships for Adults Living With Multiple Long-Term Conditions: A Qualitative Interview Study.Health expectations : an international journal of public participation in health care and health policy · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Marjorie C JohnstonAberdeen Centre for Health Data Science, University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine, Aberdeen, UK marjorie.johnston@abdn.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-4660-3099
Corrinda BlackAberdeen Centre for Health Data Science, University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine, Aberdeen, UK.
Stewart W MercerThe Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Gordon J PrescottFaculty of Health and Wellbeing, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, Lancashire, UK.
Michael A CrillyPublic Health Directorate, NHS Grampian, Aberdeen, UK.
University of Aberdeen · GBUniversity of Edinburgh · GBUniversity of Lancashire · GB

Funding

Chief Scientist Office CAF/13/03
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesMultimorbidity is the coexistence of two or more health conditions in an individual. Multimorbidity in younger adults is increasingly recognised as an important challenge. We assessed the prevalence of secondary care multimorbidity in mid-life and its association with premature mortality over 15 years of follow-up, in the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s (ACONF) cohort.

methodA prospective cohort study using linked electronic health and mortality records. Scottish ACONF participants were linked to their Scottish Morbidity Record hospital episode data and mortality records. Multimorbidity was defined as two or more conditions and was assessed using healthcare records in 2001 when the participants were aged between 45 and 51 years. The association between multimorbidity and mortality over 15 years of follow-up (to ages 60-66 years) was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. There was also adjustment for key covariates: age, gender, social class at birth, intelligence at age 7, secondary school type, educational attainment, alcohol, smoking, body mass index and adult social class.

resultsOf 9625 participants (51% males), 3% had multimorbidity. The death rate per 1000 person-years was 28.4 (95% CI 23.2 to 34.8) in those with multimorbidity and 5.7 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.1) in those without. In relation to the reference group of those with no multimorbidity, those with multimorbidity had a mortality HR of 4.5 (95% CI 3.4 to 6.0) over 15 years and this association remained when fully adjusted for the covariates (HR 2.5 (95% CI 1.5 to 4.0)).

conclusionMultimorbidity prevalence was 3% in mid-life when measured using secondary care administrative data. Multimorbidity in mid-life was associated with premature mortality.

Indexed as

Mortality, PrematureAgedFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedMultimorbidityPrevalenceProspective StudiesScotlandcohortmultimorbiditypremature mortality

Identifiers

PMID32371508
PMCPMC7229982
OpenAlexW3023325233

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.