Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32367739›Full record

ArticleComputer methods in biomechanics and biomedical engineering2020

Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe and the effect of travel restrictions.

Kevin Linka, Mathias Peirlinck, Francisco Sahli Costabal, Ellen Kuhl

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Computer methods in biomechanics and biomedical engineering, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 127 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
127citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

127 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Article
  7. Review
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  9. Challenges and opportunities in uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025
    Review
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  15. Depression and Generalized Anxiety as Long-Term Mental Health Consequences of COVID-19 in Iraqi Kurdistan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Daily Mobility of the Elderly Living in Small Cities in Lodz Province.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
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67 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Kevin LinkaDepartments of Mechanical Engineering and Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Mathias PeirlinckDepartments of Mechanical Engineering and Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Francisco Sahli CostabalDepartment of Mechanical and Metallurgical Engineering, School of Engineering, Institute for Biological and Medical Engineering, Schools of Engineering, Medicine and Biological Sciences, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Ellen KuhlDepartments of Mechanical Engineering and Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Funding

Multi-Scale Laws of Myocardial Growth and RemodelingU01HL119578 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI GUCCIONE, JULIUS MATTEO, KASSAB, GHASSAN S · 2014 to 2018
$3.8M
NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL119578
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

For the first time in history, on March 17, 2020, the European Union closed all its external borders in an attempt to contain the spreading of the coronavirus 2019, COVID-19. Throughout two past months, governments around the world have implemented massive travel restrictions and border control to mitigate the outbreak of this global pandemic. However, the precise effects of travel restrictions on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 remain unknown. Here we combine a global network mobility model with a local epidemiology model to simulate and predict the outbreak dynamics and outbreak control of COVID-19 across Europe. We correlate our mobility model to passenger air travel statistics and calibrate our epidemiology model using the number of reported COVID-19 cases for each country. Our simulations show that mobility networks of air travel can predict the emerging global diffusion pattern of a pandemic at the early stages of the outbreak. Our results suggest that an unconstrained mobility would have significantly accelerated the spreading of COVID-19, especially in Central Europe, Spain, and France. Ultimately, our network epidemiology model can inform political decision making and help identify exit strategies from current travel restrictions and total lockdown.

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Disease OutbreaksEuropeHumansPandemicsPneumonia, ViralSARS-CoV-2TravelTravel-Related IllnessCoronavirusCOVID-19epidemiologyoutbreak controloutbreak dynamicsSEIR model

Identifiers

PMID32367739
PMCPMC7429245

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.