Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32365062›Full record

ArticlePLoS computational biology2020

An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: serosolver.

James A Hay, Amanda Minter, Kylie E C Ainslie, Justin Lessler, Bingyi Yang, Derek A T Cummings, Adam J Kucharski, Steven Riley

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
2.0field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 32 citations in OpenAlex.

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  20. Estimating epidemiologic dynamics from cross-sectional viral load distributions.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

James A HayMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-1998-1844
Amanda MinterCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-1171-5688
Kylie E C AinslieMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-5419-7206
Justin LesslerDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-9741-8109
Bingyi YangDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-0811-8332
Derek A T CummingsDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-9437-1907
Adam J KucharskiCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-8814-9421
Steven RileyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-7904-4804
Imperial College London · GBLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBUniversity of Florida · USCenter for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy · USJohns Hopkins University · US

Funding

LINKING ANTIGENIC & GENETIC VARIATION OF DENGUE TO INDIVIDUAL AND POPULATION RISKR01AI114703 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI CUMMINGS, DEREK A · 2015 to 2019
$3.6M
Models for synthesising molecular, clinical and epidemiological data, and translaU01GM110721 · NIGMS · IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE · PI CAUCHEMEZ, SIMON, FERGUSON, NEIL MORRIS · 2014 to 2018
$1.9M
Influenza Immunity and Survival in Aging PopulationsR56AG048075 · NIA · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2015 to 2015
$600k
Department of HealthMedical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/J008761/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI114703NIA NIH HHS R56 AG048075NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM110721Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 200187/Z/15/ZWellcome Trust 200861/Z/16/ZWellcome Trust 206250/Z/17/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We present a flexible, open source R package designed to obtain biological and epidemiological insights from serological datasets. Characterising past exposures for multi-strain pathogens poses a specific statistical challenge: observed antibody responses measured in serological assays depend on multiple unobserved prior infections that produce cross-reactive antibody responses. We provide a general modelling framework to jointly infer infection histories and describe immune responses generated by these infections using antibody titres against current and historical strains. We do this by linking latent infection dynamics with a mechanistic model of antibody kinetics that generates expected antibody titres over time. Our aim is to provide a flexible package to identify infection histories that can be applied to a range of pathogens. We present two case studies to illustrate how our model can infer key immunological parameters, such as antibody titre boosting, waning and cross-reaction, as well as latent epidemiological processes such as attack rates and age-stratified infection risk.

Indexed as

AntibodiesHumansIncidenceKineticsModels, BiologicalAntibodies

Identifiers

PMID32365062
PMCPMC7241836
OpenAlexW3021354734

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.