ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2020
Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers.
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33 citing papers in PubMed.
- The effectiveness of the states' crisis response policies: Survival analysis on the COVID-19 transmission suppression in the United States.Health policy OPEN · 2025Article
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- COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Change in the air due to the coronavirus outbreak in four major cities of India: What do the statistics say?Journal of hazardous materials advances · 2023Article
- Association between the COVID-19 Vaccine and Preventive Behaviors: Panel Data Analysis from Japan.Vaccines · 2023Article
- An algorithm to estimate the real time secondary infections in sub-urban bus travel: COVID-19 epidemic experience at Chennai Metropolitan city India.Virusdisease · 2023Article
- COVID-19: Data-Driven optimal allocation of ventilator supply under uncertainty and risk.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Analysis of COVID-19 mathematical model for predicting the impact of control measures in Rwanda.Informatics in medicine unlocked · 2023Article
- Numerical study of a nonlinear COVID-19 pandemic model by finite difference and meshless methods.Partial differential equations in applied mathematics : a spin-off of Applied Mathematics Letters · 2022Article
- A novel hybrid fuzzy time series model for prediction of COVID-19 infected cases and deaths in India.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Uncertainty quantification in Covid-19 spread: Lockdown effects.Results in physics · 2022Article
- College reopening and community spread of COVID-19 in the United States.Public health · 2022Observational
- Modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 using fractal-fractional operator with a case study.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Factors shaping the COVID-19 epidemic curve: a multi-country analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Exploring the Utility of Google Mobility Data During the COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Digital Epidemiological Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
- A qualitative analysis of social scientists' opinions on socioeconomic and demographic implications of the lockdown during COVID-19 in India.Journal of public affairs · 2021Article
- Stability analysis and simulation of the novel Corornavirus mathematical model via the Caputo fractional-order derivative: A case study of Algeria.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Systematic review of predictive mathematical models of COVID-19 epidemic.Medical journal, Armed Forces India · 2021Article
- An interrupted time series analysis of the lockdown policies in India: a national-level analysis of COVID-19 incidence.Health policy and planning · 2021Article
- The estimated impact of decreased childhood vaccination due to COVID-19 using a dynamic transmission model of mumps in Japan.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to be a public health emergency; at present, India is facing a major threat of community spread. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of lockdown on future COVID-19 cases with a specific focus on India.
objectiveThe objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model and to assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India.
methodsA model consisting of a framework of ordinary differential equations was developed by incorporating the actual reported cases in 14 countries. After validation, the model was applied to predict COVID-19 transmission in India for different intervention scenarios in terms of lockdown for 4, 14, 21, 42, and 60 days. We also assessed the situations of enhanced exposure due to aggregation of individuals in transit stations and shopping malls before the lockdown.
resultsThe developed model is efficient in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases compared to the actual reported cases in 14 countries. For India, the model predicted marked reductions in cases for the intervention periods of 14 and 21 days of lockdown and significant reduction for 42 days of lockdown. Such intervention exceeding 42 days does not result in measurable improvement. Finally, for the scenario of "panic shopping" or situations where there is a sudden increase in the factors leading to higher exposure to infection, the model predicted an exponential transmission, resulting in failure of the considered intervention strategy.
conclusionsImplementation of a strict lockdown for a period of at least 21 days is expected to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. However, a further extension of up to 42 days is required to significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in India. Any relaxation in the lockdown may lead to exponential transmission, resulting in a heavy burden on the health care system in the country.
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