ArticleThe Science of the total environment2020
Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France.
Article in The Science of the total environment, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 232 papers.
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Who cites it
232 citing papers in PubMed.
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- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions.BMC public health · 2025Article
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- Genetic variants inFrontiers in genetics · 2025Article
- Analysis and 15-Year Projections of the Global Burden of Tension-Type Headache by Sex from 1990 to 2021: A Systematic Review of GBD 2021 Data.Journal of pain research · 2025Article
- Nursing care management strategies to address the COVID-19 pandemic.Revista brasileira de enfermagem · 2025Article
- COVID-19, migrants, and world large urban areas: a thematic policy brief.Journal of public health policy · 2024Review
- Ventricular arrhythmia burden in ICD patients during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society · 2024Article
- High-resolution short-term prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic based on spatial-temporal model modified by historical meteorological data.Fundamental research · 2024Article
- Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 based on policy, vaccination, and Omicron data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Application of an ARFIMA Model to Estimate Hepatitis C Epidemics in Henan, China.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Mortality Rate and Outcomes of Omicron Variant Positive Patients with Osteoporotic Fractures: A Retrospective Study.Journal of bone metabolism · 2024Article
172 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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1 author.
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Abstract
At the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared in Wuhan city, China. As of April 15, 2020, >1.9 million COVID-19 cases were confirmed worldwide, including >120,000 deaths. There is an urgent need to monitor and predict COVID-19 prevalence to control this spread more effectively. Time series models are significant in predicting the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and taking the necessary measures to respond to this crisis. In this study, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 prevalence of Italy, Spain, and France, the most affected countries of Europe. The prevalence data of COVID-19 from 21 February 2020 to 15 April 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization website. Several ARIMA models were formulated with different ARIMA parameters. ARIMA (0,2,1), ARIMA (1,2,0), and ARIMA (0,2,1) models with the lowest MAPE values (4.7520, 5.8486, and 5.6335) were selected as the best models for Italy, Spain, and France, respectively. This study shows that ARIMA models are suitable for predicting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the future. The results of the analysis can shed light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and give an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions. Besides, the prediction of COVID-19 prevalence trends of Italy, Spain, and France can help take precautions and policy formulation for this epidemic in other countries.
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